Astros at Red Sox Picks, Odds, & Betting Lines

Maximize Your Odds of Winning with SportsLine Model and Our Top-Rated Picks

HOU @ BOS

Maximize Your Odds of Winning with SportsLine Model and Our Top-Rated Picks

HOU @ BOS

Maximize Your Odds of Winning with SportsLine Model and Our Top-Rated Picks

56%

PUBLIC

44%

53%

PUBLIC

47%

29-20 in Last 49 MLB ML Picks

29-21 in Last 50 MLB Picks

11-7 in Last 18 HOU Picks

Bob's Analysis:

We saw this same pitching match-up a week ago. Houston’s JP France allowed 10 earned runs while the Red Sox Brayan Bello allowed one earned run in seven innings. Both teams are hitting well but Houston has been putting up runs since the Red Sox beat them 17-1. The Astros have scored 43 runs since that game and JP France should be more focused tonight.

Pick Made:Tue 10:15 pm UTC

Point SpreadHouston +1.5 -185

50-24 in Last 74 MLB ATS Picks

203-130-1 in Last 334 MLB Picks

70-42-2 in Last 114 HOU Picks

14-5 in Last 19 HOU ATS Picks

Matt's Analysis:

Houston's JP France was fricasseed last time out against these Red Sox in H-Town but has an ERA south of 2.00 on the road and has allowed one run or fewer in five of his eight away starts. I like that Astros lineup better than the Sox's as well, especially with the season debut of former All-Star outfielder Michael Brantley off injury. Frankly, it's their best lineup of the season. Let's hope it matters. Will do a half-unit simply as Brayan Bello could dominate for the Sox and this is pricy.

Pick Made:Tue 8:06 pm UTC

23-8 in Last 31 MLB Picks

13-7 in Last 20 MLB ML Picks

27-19-1 in Last 47 HOU Picks

23-15 in Last 38 HOU ML Picks

Mike's Analysis:

I'm backing the Astros as underdogs again tonight. My model indicates that they should win 54 percent of simulations, adjusting the line from +105 to -117. Brayan Bello receives more market respect than warranted. His preferred pitch, the sinking fastball, currently performs below the MLB average in terms of wOBA and average exit velocity. While Bello's changeup is a strong point, I don't think he can utilize it frequently enough against this potent lineup. Additionally, both his fastball and slider fall below the MLB average when considering xwOBA. I'm on Houston.

Pick Made:Tue 7:24 pm UTC

22-12 in Last 34 BOS Picks

19-12 in Last 31 BOS ML Picks

Zack's Analysis:

Tuesday look for a bounce back spot from the Boston Red Sox. They will turn to starting pitcher Brayan Bello who just delivered a win at Houston this past Thursday. JP France of the Houston Astros lasted just 2 1/3 innings and gave up ten earned runs. Take the Red Sox on a great price.

Pick Made:Tue 5:52 pm UTC

As Underdog or Even

STATUS

As Favorite

When Line was -116 to +114

MONEY LINE

When Line was -133 to -103

As Road Underdog

LOCATION & STATUS

As Home Favorite

vs Teams That Win 46-54% of Games

OPP WIN%

vs Teams That Win >54% of Games

vs Teams Allowing >4.2 Runs

OPP DEFENSE

vs Teams Allowing >4.2 Runs

3rd game without a day off

REST

3rd game without a day off

when J.P. France starts

PROJECTED STARTER

when Brayan Bello starts

The Simulation uses parameters such as each team's statistics, expected lineups and defense-adjusted performance metrics to simulate every game 10,000 times and generate projections for the matchup. Those projections are then compared to the betting lines to create pick grades based on confidence, with "A" picks representing the biggest edge.

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