Orioles at Padres Picks, Odds, & Betting Lines

Maximize Your Odds of Winning with SportsLine Model and Our Top-Rated Picks

Maximize Your Odds of Winning with SportsLine Model and Our Top-Rated Picks

Maximize Your Odds of Winning with SportsLine Model and Our Top-Rated Picks

64%

PUBLIC

36%

62%

PUBLIC

38%

20-14 in Last 34 MLB ML Picks

20-15 in Last 35 MLB Picks

15-9 in Last 24 BAL Picks

13-9 in Last 22 BAL ML Picks

Bob's Analysis:

San Diego has won four games since the trade deadline, August 1st. The Padres are hitting .232 with a .725 OPS over their last seven days and get back Michael Wacha this evening. However, Baltimore is 25-13 SU when facing teams under .500. The Orioles Jack Flathery pitched very well in his first road start with the team, one earned run in six innings at Toronto. The Orioles also have Austin Hays back in the lineup tonight.

Pick Made:Tue 11:55 pm UTC

Over / UnderOVER 8.5 -105

3-0 in Last 3 MLB Picks

3-0 in Last 3 MLB O/U Picks

Grace's Analysis:

Michael Wacha's underlying metrics imply negative regression ahead, so it doesn't help that this is his first start since July 1 due to a shoulder injury. When he's bounced early, the O's get a Padres bullpen that has ranked Bottom 5 in the MLB since the start of June. On the other side, Jack Flaherty's fastball and slider account for 65% of his usage, but both are below-average pitches in the MLB in terms of wOBA. Sharp money has been coming in on the this side since noon, with 43% of the tickets but 83% of the handle to the over. The ball will travel further with a humidity level of 70% at first pitch that will climb to 76% an hour into the game.

Pick Made:Tue 10:36 pm UTC

75-53 in Last 128 MLB ML Picks

21-13 in Last 34 MLB Picks

63-46 in Last 109 BAL Picks

Larry's Analysis:

Two teams headed in completely opposite directions. Baltimore has defied expectations all season long and sport the best record in the AL. The Padres on the other hand are seven games under .500 and have lost two of their last eight games despite possessing one of the highest payrolls in the majors. The wrong team is favored, take Baltimore.

Pick Made:Tue 8:12 pm UTC

Over / UnderOVER 8.5 -105

18-4 in Last 22 MLB Picks

12-2-1 in Last 15 MLB O/U Picks

Mike's Analysis:

I am concerned about Michael Wacha, who is returning from the IL to start this game. While Wacha's changeup has been fine, he's throwing it too often, and his 4-seam and cut fastballs have been bad in terms of xwOBA. On the flip side, I also have reservations about Jack Flaherty, who has given up 10 walks and 5 home runs in his last 5 starts. Considering that the Padres are among the best teams in MLB at drawing walks and boast one of the lowest strikeout rates since July 1st, I anticipate a significant number of baserunners in this matchup. There's plenty of power in both lineups on a night with humidity in the upper 70's. Take the Over.

Pick Made:Tue 7:14 pm UTC

15-7 in Last 22 MLB Picks

10-4 in Last 14 MLB ML Picks

7-3 in Last 10 BAL Picks

6-3 in Last 9 BAL ML Picks

Alex's Analysis:

I don't understand why Baltimore is not getting more credit from the odds makers. They have the best record in the AL and I personally trust them a lot more than I trust a Padres team that hasn't played up to their potential all season. Jack Flaherty has looked solid since joining Baltimore's rotation at the trade deadline and San Diego starter Michael Wacha is a serious regression candidate. I'll take the Orioles.

Pick Made:Tue 10:35 am UTC

As Underdog or Even

STATUS

As Favorite

When Line was -120 to +110

MONEY LINE

When Line was -129 to +101

As Road Underdog

LOCATION & STATUS

As Home Favorite

vs Teams That Win 46-54% of Games

OPP WIN%

vs Teams That Win >54% of Games

vs Teams Allowing 3.9 to 4.2 Runs

OPP DEFENSE

vs Teams Allowing >4.2 Runs

3rd game without a day off

REST

3rd game without a day off

when Jack Flaherty starts

PROJECTED STARTER

when Michael Wacha starts

The Simulation uses parameters such as each team's statistics, expected lineups and defense-adjusted performance metrics to simulate every game 10,000 times and generate projections for the matchup. Those projections are then compared to the betting lines to create pick grades based on confidence, with "A" picks representing the biggest edge.

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