Astros have high ROI as underdogs
This article was contributed by BetMGM. For more sports betting insights, check out BetMGM.com.
MLB underdogs had a terrible August. That followed a decent July, terrible June, decent May and terrible April.
It adds up to another bad season for underdogs in run-line sports betting. Barring unprecedented dominance in September, run-line dogs won’t return a profit for the 17th time in the last 19 seasons and could finish the regular season with the second-worst ROI over that time.
Without the Houston Astros, the numbers would be even worse. In fact, without the Astros, the run-line underdog ROI would drop approximately 14%, from -3.5% to -4%.
That’s because the Astros are having one of the best runs as an underdog in the last two decades of MLB sports betting.
From 2017-21, the Astros struggled to cover the run line in those limited underdog opportunities. But they’ve been dominant the last two years, becoming the best underdog team in MLB betting … by a mile.
The Astros were just two games under .500 (42-44) as an underdog from 2017-21, though, thanks to long odds more often than not, their run-line return on investment (ROI) was -19%. For example, if you bet $100 on the Astros’ run line in each of those 86 games, you would’ve lost nearly $1,700.
Since 2022: 33-13 (.717) for an ROI of 21%.
Since then, the Astros have been a run-line underdog 14 times. They’ve covered in 10 of those games, improving their two-year ROI to 21.2%.
If you wagered $100 on the Astros’ run line in each of those 60 games since the start of the 2022 season, you’d be up nearly $1,300.
Only one other team has an ROI of at least 10% over that time. And that team -- the Baltimore Orioles at 13% -- is more than eight percentage points behind Houston.
Not only are the Astros covering the run line at a staggering rate (.717) over that time, they’re covering by an average of 2.3 runs, the highest among all teams.
You can view Astros’ run lines and more MLB odds at the BetMGM online sportsbook. If you’re in a state where BetMGM is available and don’t have an account yet, check out sportsbook promotions for a welcome offer.
