Astros thriving as underdogs

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The Houston Astros have been a regular-season run-line underdog 132 times since 2017, or approximately once every 7.2 games — only the Los Angeles Dodgers have been an underdog less often (53 games, or once every 17.9 games).

From 2017-21, the Astros struggled to cover the run line in those limited underdog opportunities. But they’ve been dominant the last two years, becoming the best underdog team in MLB betting … by a mile.

The Astros were just two games under .500 (42-44) as an underdog from 2017-21, though, thanks to long odds more often than not, their run-line return on investment (ROI) was -19%. For example, if you bet $100 on the Astros’ run line in each of those 86 games, you would’ve lost nearly $1,700.

Since 2022: 33-13 (.717) for an ROI of 21%.

No other team has an ROI north of 12% over that time. And the Astros are the only team without an underdog run-line losing streak of at least three games over that time. Meanwhile, they have six separate three-game winning streaks since April 2022, including a six-game streak that started in August 2022 and carried into April 2023.

In those games, the Astros covered by an average of 2.1 runs per game  (no other team was higher than +1.6 runs) and had an average run differential of +0.6 (no other team was higher than +0.1).

Also of note as an underdog: They’ve covered in 21 of 24 games started by Framber Valdez (5-0), Hunter Brown (3-1), Cristian Javier (7-1), and Luis Garcia (6-1).

You can view Astros’ run lines and more MLB odds at the BetMGM online sportsbook. If you’re in a state in which BetMGM is available and don’t have an account yet, check out sports betting promotions for a welcome offer.