Astros-Marlins prediction: Picks, odds on Wednesday, August 16

The Houston Astros (69-52) will look to extend their lead in the American League Wild Card race when they take on the Miami Marlins (63-58) in the series finale of the three-game series between the two teams. Justin Verlander (7-6, 3.19 ERA) gets the start for the Astros, while Jesus Luzardo (8-7, 3.91 ERA) will be on the mound for the Marlins. First pitch is set for 6:40 p.m. ET.

The Astros are are -125 moneyline favorites at DraftKings Sportsbook, while the Marlins are +105 underdogs. The total is set at 8.

Astros-Marlins picks: Wednesday, August 16

Injury report

Astros

Out: RP Phil Maton (right elbow contusion), 1B Jose Abreu (lumbar spine inflammation), OF Michael Brantley (right shoulder surgery)

Marlins

Out: RP Huascar Brazoban (left hamstring strain), RP JT Chargois (right rib cage strain), RP Tommy Nance (right shoulder sprain)

Starting pitchers

Justin Verlander vs. Jesus Luzardo

Verlander will be making his third start with the Astros after he headed back to the Lone Star State at the Trade Deadline. After going seven innings and allowing two runs in his first start back with Houston, he allowed three runs in six innings his last time out against the Angels. He’s dominated the Marlins in his career, as he boasts a 1.42 ERA in 19 career innings against the club.

Luzardo toes the rubber in the midst of another strong season, as he’s already set a career-high in innings pitched (133 2/3), and is is on pace to finish with an ERA under 4.25. That said, Luzardo’s struggled a bit recently, as he has a 10.13 ERA over his last three starts. The one-time Oakland Athletic has some familiarly with the Astros, having allowed 10 earned runs over 20 2/3 career innings against the club.

Over/Under pick

Normally, Verlander on the mound would equate to a low-scoring game, but that hasn’t been the case recently, as he’s been touched up for some runs in both of his starts with the Astros. That, coupled with Luzardo allowing runs in bunches over his last three starts, has me leaning towards the over.

Pick: Over 8

Moneyline pick

I like the Astros to pick up the series win, in part because they have the better pitcher on the mound. They came from behind against the Marlins last night, but. think they’ll end up playing from in front tonight in a win.