Marlins-Cardinals prediction: Picks, odds on Monday, July 17

The Miami Marlins take on the St. Louis Cardinals in the first game of a three-game series on Monday, July 17. First pitch is scheduled for 7:45 p.m. ET from Busch Stadium. The red-hot Jesus Luzardo (8-5, 3.29 ERA) will take the mound for the Marlins, while St. Louis counters with righty Miles Mikolas (5-5, 4.12 ERA).

This one is a true pick ‘em on the moneyline at DraftKings Sportsbook, with both teams checking in at -110. The run total is set at 8.5.

Marlins-Cardinals picks: Monday, July 17

Injury report

Marlins

Out: SP Edward Cabrera (right shoulder impingement), OF Avisail Garcia (left back tightness), RP Matt Barnes (left hip impingement), OF Jazz Chisholm Jr. (left oblique strain), OF Jonathan Davis (right knee strain)

Cardinals

Out: SP Adam Wainwright (shoulder), OF/INF Tommy Edman (wrist), RP Drew VerHagen (hip), SP/RP Jake Woodford (shoulder), RP Ryan Helsley (forearm), INF Jose Fermin (quad)

Starting pitchers

Jesus Luzardo vs. Miles Mikolas

Luzardo had a strong end to June, keeping both opponents scoreless over 13.1 innings in his last two starts of the month. He also started off July on the right foot against these same Cardinals, allowing no runs and striking out eight in six innings on the mound. He let up two in 6.1 innings to the Phillies just before the All-Star break, but he’s found success against St. Louis already this season.

Mikolas did not fare quite as well in that series. In 6.1 innings pitched against the Marlins at the start of July, he conceded four earned runs and recorded just two strikeouts. However, he has looked much stronger since then, allowing zero earned runs in his last 10 innings pitched.

Over/Under pick

The Marlins had a 10-run and a 15-run game against the Cardinals last time these two teams faced off. While Miami they might not achieve that again, St. Louis should be able to contribute enough at home to push us past this over. They were racking up runs this past weekend against the Nationals and have been the second-best offense in baseball in the month of July.

Pick: Over 8.5

Moneyline pick

Last time the Marlins faced the Cardinals, it was a disaster for St. Louis. Miami scored 25 runs to the Cards’ 14 in three games. Mikolas did not fare particularly well against the Miami lineup, either, while Luzardo excelled. Despite the Cardinals’ home-field advantage, I think the Marlins come in confident and take the first game of the series here.