Astros vs. Marlins prediction: MLB odds, picks for Justin Verlander start

I’m a fan of Marlins starting pitcher Jesus Luzardo but he’s been slipping recently.

He’s allowed 15 earned runs over his past three starts and is making more mistakes in the heart of the zone — hanging his slider and not keeping his fastball high enough. 

Stuff+ is a metric used to quantify the “nastiness” of a pitcher’s arsenal based on its physical characteristics, such as velocity, movement and release point.

The stat is normalized so that 100 is league-average — if you have a Stuff+ 100 rating on your fastball, you have a league-average fastball. 

In the first half of the season, Luzardo was one of the league’s better pitchers in the league by Stuff+ (104).

But he checks in with a below-average Stuff+ mark over the past month (97), reaffirming the eye test that something is off. 

Meanwhile, Astros starting pitcher Justin Verlander has improved as the season has progressed.

He’s posted a 1.95 ERA over his past nine starts, ranking above average in Stuff+ during the stretch (101). 

I’ll bet on the improving veteran over the regressing youngster with these two facing off in South Beach on Wednesday. 

It helps that Houston’s lineup profiles better against left-handed pitching (i.e., Luzardo), while Miami’s projects worse against right-handed pitching (i.e., Verlander). 

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Over the past month, the Astros boast the third-best OPS in baseball against left-handed pitching (.845), while the Marlins have the seventh-lowest against righties (.689).

Take Verlander and the ’Stros against Luzardo and the Fish.

The pick: Astros moneyline (-125, Caesars Sportsbook)