Astros-Rangers prediction: Picks, odds on Monday, July 3

The Texas Rangers (50-34) will look to split their four-game series with the rival Houston Astros (46-38) on Monday afternoon. First pitch is scheduled for 2:05 p.m. ET from Globe Life Field in Arlington, Texas. Cristian Javier (7-1, 3.72) gets the ball for the visitors, while Texas sends lefty Martin Perez (7-3, 4.28) to the mound.

The Rangers are -120 moneyline favorites on DraftKings Sportsbook, making the Astros +100 underdogs with the over/under set at nine.

Astros-Rangers picks: Monday, July 3

Injury report

Astros

Day to day: SS Jeremy Pena (neck)
Out: OF Ross Adolph (undisclosed), SP Framber Valdez (ankle), DH Michael Brantley (shoulder), DH Yordan Alvarez (oblique), 2B Will Wagner (wrist), SP Jose Urquidy (shoulder), SP Lance McCullers (forearm), SP Luis Garcia (elbow)

Rangers

Out: RP Jose Leclerc (ankle), SP Jacob deGrom (elbow), SP Jake Odorizzi (shoulder), RP Brett Martin (shoulder)

Starting pitchers

Cristian Javier vs. Martin Perez

Javier will make his 17th start of the season but is coming off his worst outing of 2023. Through four innings, Javier allowed six runs on eight hits and a walk in a win over the St. Louis Cardinals.

Perez has also made 16 starts to this point of the season and has been throwing very well as of late. He hasn’t allowed more than two earned runs in any of his last three starts over a span of 19 innings.

Over/Under pick

None of the first three games of this series reached nine runs, and this matchup should fall short of the total as well. The Rangers rank first in the MLB in runs per game (5.9) but haven’t scored more than five runs in any of their previous four games.

Pick: Under 9

Moneyline pick

Javier’s season-long numbers look good, but he’s been struggling over his last few starts. Over his last two appearances, he gave up 10 runs over 6.1 innings and allowed at least four runs in three of his last four outings. Perez has been more consistent over his last few starts, so let’s go with Texas to pick up a victory on Monday afternoon.