Astros vs. Rangers prediction and odds for Monday, July 3 (Can Rangers salvage split?)

The Houston Astros have run the AL West for quite a few years now, but this season the Texas Rangers have grabbed the reins.

Over the weekend, the Astros took two of the first three in this four game series to get to 46-38, just four games back of the 50-34 Rangers. Houston has overtaken the Los Angeles Angels for second and might be making a real charge at Texas.

For the Astros to really leave an impression they need to win this final game to take the series win and pull even a game closer. For the finale, they’ll send Cristian Javier to the mound to make his 17th start of the season.

Javier is 7-1 with a 3.72 ERA this season. He will be opposed by Martin Perez. The veteran lefty is 7-3 with a 4.28 ERA in 16 starts this year.

The Rangers are home favorites in Game 4, but their backs are a bit against the wall as the best they can hope for is a split. Let’s take a look at those odds.

Astros vs. Rangers odds, run line and total

Astros vs. Rangers prediction and pick

Injuries have been a struggle for Houston this season and that was the case yesterday in their win.

They did it without Framber Valdez on the mound or Yordan Alvarez at the plate, but today against Martin Perez things will be a lot tougher. Jeremy Peña is banged up as well, but is listed as day-to-day after missing the start in Game 3.

Alvarez and Peña are two of their best hitters against lefties accounting for eight of their 23 home runs off left-handers. Alvarez has an OPS of .988 in left-on-left matchups.

Houston is already 16th in OPS against lefties for the year and that’s with Alvarez and Pena, so Perez should have a good afternoon.

Perez has a FIP of 4.86 in large part because he only has 60 strikeouts to 30 walks in 90.1 innings of work. The strikeout numbers haven’t improved, but he’s been good lately with three straight quality starts.

Javier on the other hand has not been pitching so well. He also carries a FIP in the fours at 4.10 and his ERA is climbing up to it after allowing six runs in his last start which only lasted four innings. The start prior he only managed 2.1 and surrendered four runs on four hits with five walks.

The command isn’t there for Javier right now and without it his stuff isn’t quite enough. I like the Rangers to take the finale and escape with a split.

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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change