Astros-Rangers prediction: Picks, odds on Monday, September 4

There’s a critical AL West showdown kicking off in the Lone Star State on Monday afternoon, with the Texas Rangers (76-60) getting set to take on the Houston Astros (77-61) from Globe Life Field in Arlington. First pitch is slated for 4:05 p.m. ET. Texas will give the ball to lefty Andrew Heaney (9-6, 4.16 ERA), while Houston counters with rookie J.P. France (10-5, 3.49).

This three-game set, which starts today, is going to go a long way in determining how the AL West shakes out. Both teams are tied for second place in the division, sitting just one game back of the division-leading Seattle Mariners. Both teams are also treading water a bit, sitting just at or slightly below .500 over their last 20 games — including dropping series over the weekend against the Twins, and Yankees, respectively.

This one is nearly a pick ‘em on the moneyline at DraftKings Sportsbook, with the Rangers at -115 and the Astros at -105. The run total is set at 9.5.

Astros-Rangers picks: Monday, September 4

Injury report

Astros

N/A

Rangers

Day to day: SP Max Scherzer (fatigue)
Out: UTIL Brad Miller (hamstring), SP Nathan Eovaldi (forearm), 3B Josh Jung (thumb)

Starting pitchers

J.P. France vs. Andrew Heaney

France has been a revelation for the Astros amid several injuries to the team’s starting rotation. In his last seven games, the unheralded rookie has allowed 19 earned runs in 42 frames tossed, fanning 32 hitters in that span. He earned a win over the Rangers in July, going seven innings and allowing just one unearned run on five hits.

Heaney has faced Houston three times this season and has a 1-0 record, earning no-decisions twice. He’s gone just five innings in all three outings and in his worst outing allowed just three runs on four hits (oddly enough, that was his lone win). In the other two outings, he kept the Astros off the board entirely. The lefty hasn’t been working very deep into games of late as he’s struggled with his command.

Over/Under pick

These two teams have played 10 times this season and the score has eclipsed the nine-run mark on five of those instances. Both teams are swinging relatively hot bats, with each team clearing five-plus runs scored 11 times combined over the last 10 games. Houston is among the league’s best offenses against left-handed pitching this year, as well.

Pick: Over 9.5

Moneyline pick

In the 10 games these teams have played so far, the Astros have a slight 6-4 advantage. Both pitchers on the hill are solid and have played well against each other this season. It’s really a bit of a toss-up — which means we’re rocking with the Rangers because of their impeccable home record (43-26).