Houston Astros vs. Texas Rangers

Astros vs. Rangers Odds

The road team has won each of the first three games of the American League Championship Series this year, which has led to a 2-1 series lead for the Texas Rangers over the Houston Astros. Tonight, Houston will hand the ball to Jose Urquidy in Game 4 as they look to keep that trend going, to even the series at two games each. Texas will counter with Andrew Heaney. The first pitch in scheduled for 8:03 p.m. ET on FS1.

Ahead of the first pitch, oddsmakers have priced the Rangers as -115 favorites on the moneyline. The total for this contest is set at over/under 9.5 runs.

Let’s take a deeper look at the matchup to see where baseball bettors can find value at sportsbooks in this contest.

Houston Astros

Jose Urquidy gets the ball for Houston in Game 4

Jose Urquidy threw the ball well in his lone start during the Division Series, but he will have a much tougher test in the ALCS against the Rangers. Urquidy finished the regular season ranked in the 29th percentile in xERA, 9th percentile in strikeout rate, and 19th percentile in ground ball rate. Simply, he does not generate many swings and misses, he has command issues, and he does not induce much contact on the ground. This creates an extremely low floor for Urquidy each time he takes the mound.

Despite lasting 5.2 innings against the Minnesota Twins in the Division Series, he recorded only three outs on the ground. Tonight is likely to be more of the same against a Texas lineup that will feature at least five left-handed hitters. Urquidy induced a ground ball only 33.3% of the balls that left-handed batters put in play against him during the regular season.

Urquidy has a tough test in front of him on Thursday night. Do not expect a heroic performance from him.

Houston offense ready for launch

In Major League Baseball, when teams have extended periods with no games, it has a negative impact on their offensive output more often than not. Following a four day break after defeating Minnesota in the Division Series, the Astros posted a .169 batting average and a .552 OPS through the first two games of the ALCS – both of which are significantly lower than the .261 batting average and .818 OPS that this lineup posted during the Division Series.

In Game 3, Houston’s bats finally came to life, scoring eight runs to earn their first victory of the series. The Astros were 5-for-12 with runners-in-scoring-position (RISP) and made a few timely plays in the field to help their eight runs stand up.

During the second half of the campaign, Houston ranked 2nd in OPS and 1st in ISO against left-handed pitching. The Astros have been better offensively on the road than at home this season, citing a visual change to the batter’s eye at Minute Maid Park, which proved bothersome to them during the regular season. Playing on the road tonight, this group is likely to have another productive showing at the dish.

Astros bullpen beginning to show cracks

In the series opener, Hector Neris and Bryan Abreu covered 2.1 innings for the Astros, allowing no runs on no hits while striking out three batters. Houston’s bullpen was excellent again in Game 2, allowing no runs on one hit across 6.1 innings of work after Framber Valdez was chased from the game earlier than expected. However, the ball finally dropped in Game 3, with this relief corps allowing three earned runs in 3.1 innings.

Despite a strong start to the postseason, this unit remains a major concern for Manager Dusty Baker. Last season, Houston’s arm barn had seven different relievers throw at least 16.1 innings while posting a 3.00 FIP or better during the final two months of the regular season. This year, the Astros had only two relievers meet those standards. Only five of Houston’s relievers managed a sub-4.00 FIP with at least 16.0 innings of work during the final two months of the regular season while operating in a meaningful role for this unit.

If Houston’s bullpen is overexposed in this series, it is going to be difficult for Houston to punch their ticket back to the World Series. The talent simply is nowhere near as deep as it has been in recent seasons.

Texas Rangers

Andrew Heaney to open for the Rangers on Thursday

Andrew Heaney will toe the rubber this evening for the Rangers, marking the first time since October 7 that he will pitch in a live game. During the Wild Card round, Heaney tossed 3.2 innings, allowing one earned run on two hits while striking out one batter. He will have a much more difficult assignment this evening against a Houston offense that has mashed left-handed pitching since the All-Star break.

Heaney did not have great splits anywhere during the regular season, but he was marginally more effective at home, where he posted a 4.26 FIP and a 1.43 WHIP. His struggles against right-handed hitters, his inability to limit hard contact, and the fact that he has not pitched in 12 days are all red flags going into Game 4.

It would not be surprising to see the Texas bullpen active early in this contest.

Texas tough offense

On Wednesday night, Texas lost their first game of this year’s postseason, but it was not the offense’s fault. In their first seven playoff games, the Rangers scored 39 runs and posted an .807 OPS. Yesterday, the Rangers once again scored five runs, but they simply could not keep pace with the Astros bats.

OPS and 4th in ISO against right-handed pitching. They get another favorable matchup against Jose Urquidy in Game 4, who has not been impressive in any situation so far in 2023. If the Rangers can chase Urquidy early in this contest, they will get an opportunity against a weak Houston relief corps that used their three best arms to secure yesterday’s win.

This group is well-positioned to continue scoring runs at a high rate in Game 4.

Texas leaning on starting pitching to avoid bullpen concerns

The largest concern for the Rangers heading into October was their bullpen. That concern was mitigated substantially during their first seven postseason games thanks to their starting pitchers getting deep into games. However, that was not the case yesterday, with Max Scherzer being sent to the showers after only four frames.

The result was three earned runs allowed in five innings from Bradford, Stratton, Smith, Gray, and Perez. There would have been a fourth earned run in the box score, if not for a web-gem, home-run robbery by Leody Taveras to pull back a Yordan Alvarez missile.

During the regular season, the Rangers’ bullpen ranked 22nd in FIP, 13th in WHIP, 19th in strikeout rate, and 6th in walk percentage. Texas was just as vulnerable in the late innings down the stretch, ranking 23rd in FIP, 17th in WHIP, 11th in strikeout rate, and 19th in walk percentage in September.

Considering the fact that Heaney has not pitched in 12 days and has not thrown more than 56 pitches in nearly two months, the bullpen is likely to be heavily involved in Game 4 for Texas, which is not ideal for Manager Bruce Bochy.

Astros vs. Rangers – Picks & Predictions

According to Evan Grant, the roof will be open tonight at Globe Life Field for the first time since May 21 against the Colorado Rockies. In that game, 16 runs were scored and three home runs were hit.

Both of these offenses are performing at an elite level so far in these playoffs and both bullpens are extremely weak in the middle frames if tonight’s starting pitchers do not perform well. These two teams combined for 13 runs yesterday, and it would not be surprising to see another shootout in Game 4. The over is an appealing option for bettors.

PICK: Over 9.5 (-120, Fanatics Sportsbook)