ALCS Game 4: Houston Astros vs. Texas Rangers
After losing the first two games of the ALCS at home, the Houston Astros responded on the road in Game 3.
They outslugged the Texas Rangers 8-5 in the highest-scoring game of the series so far, surpassing the 11 combined runs in the first two games.
The Rangers were unable to take a commanding 3-0 lead despite starting Max Scherzer. The future Hall of Famer was predictably rusty in his first start in over a month, taking the loss after yielding five runs on five hits and a walk in four innings.
Will the Astros even things up with another win in Game 4? Or will Texas maintain control of the series and inch one step closer to the World Series?
Game Details
- Matchup: Houston Astros at Texas Rangers
- Date: Thursday, Oct. 19
- Time: 7:03 p.m. CST / 8:03 p.m. EST
- Location: Globe Life Field (Arlington, TX)
Odds Summary
- Moneyline: Astros -110, Rangers -110
- Runline: Astros -1.5 (+145), Rangers +1.5 (-175)
- Total: Over/Under 10 (-105/-115)
Odds from BetMGM Sportsbook. Subject to change.
Last Time Out
Up 2-0 with Scherzer on the mound, the Rangers were feeling good about themselves heading into Game 3.
Sportsbooks even had them as World Series favorites, bumping them ahead of the Philadelphia Phillies.
Scherzer didn’t have his best, however.
He made it through the first inning unscathed but allowed at least one run in each of his next three innings. By the time he exited, Houston already led 5-0.
Texas couldn’t accomplish much against Cristian Javier, finally breaking through for two runs in the fifth.
The Rangers rallied for two runs in the seventh and another in the eighth, but the Astros matched them in both frames.
Texas never got any closer than three runs and ultimately suffered its first loss of the series, 8-5.
Compared to the series’ first two games, Game 3 was a slugfest.
Houston plated eight runs on 12 hits, only one of which left the yard (Jose Altuve’s third-inning solo homer). Josh Jung did nearly all of the damage for the Rangers with a pair of two-run shots.
Moneyline
The home team has been favored on the moneyline in every game this series. However, the odds here are narrower than in Game 3.
The Astros are sending right-hander Jose Urquidy to the mound. He had a rough regular season, going 3-3 with a 5.29 ERA and missing time with injuries after pitching at an All-Star level in 2022.
However, he’s turned things around lately with two earned runs and five hits allowed in his last 14 ⅔ innings.
The Rangers are rolling with lefty Andrew Heaney.
Heaney struggled for much of the regular season and ultimately lost his job in the rotation, but he’s proved outstanding recently with only one earned run allowed over his last 13 frames.
The problem for Heaney is that Houston finished as one of the best teams in baseball against left-handed pitchers this year.
During the regular season, the Astros paced the American League with a 122 wRC+ and a .347 wOBA versus southpaws, slashing .270/.339/.470 against them. With right-handed bats like Jose Altuve, Jose Abreu, Alex Bregman and Jeremy Pena anchoring its lineup, Houston is a tough matchup for even elite hurlers, which Heaney is not.
The Astros are swinging hot bats after Wednesday’s outburst and are primed for another big game on Thursday. Back Houston to send Heaney to an early shower and mash its way to victory.
Runline
Texas covered the runline in the first two games of the series, but Houston returned the favor in Game 3.
The Astros finished one win away from posting MLB’s best road record during the regular season, and that trend has continued for them in the playoffs.
They’re 3-0 on the road in the postseason, bringing their overall away record to 54-30 (.643 winning percentage).
Much of that success came at Globe Life Field, which is essentially a home away from home for Houston.
The Astros are now 7-1 there this season with a +34 run differential, so they’re clearly not intimidated by Rangers fans.
Over/Under
The Over/Under for Game 4 is 10 runs, slightly more than the projected total for Game 3.
The Under hit in Game 1 when both offenses were still asleep from their layoffs between series, but the Over has since cashed in Games 2 and 3.
Expect that trend to continue, as both teams are relying on their worst starting pitchers of the series before returning to their aces in Game 5.
Texas had to use five relievers in Game 3 after Scherzer lasted only four innings, leaving its bullpen vulnerable to Houston’s bats. Game 4 will likely follow a similar script for the Rangers, as Heaney hasn’t completed five innings since Aug. 29.
Look for both offenses to jump out to quick starts and knock the starters out of the game early, resulting in long nights for both bullpens and another high-scoring game.
Photo by Richard Rodriguez/Getty Images
