Astros vs. Blue Jays picks and odds: Fade Manoah in series opener against Houston

The World Series champion Houston Astros are at Rogers Centre tonight to open a four-game series against the Toronto Blue Jays.

The pregame narrative: Alek Manoah had yet another underwhelming start last time out, and now he’ll face an offence that’s heating up. The Astros are a fair bet to clear their run total and at least keep things even at the midway point.

MLB odds as of 9:00 a.m. ET on 06/05/23.

Astros vs. Blue Jays picks

Best Bet: Astros +0.5 - first 5 innings (-124)

We’re still in fade-Manoah mode.

The good news about Toronto’s Opening Day starter is that he only allowed two runs last Wednesday against the Brewers. The bad news is that he only lasted four innings against one of baseball’s weakest offences.

And once again, he demonstrated an inability to put Toronto in a position to win. The Blue Jays are 1-8 in his past nine starts, and Manoah has been credited with the loss in six of those.

At the five-inning mark, Toronto has been tied or trailing in 11 of his 12 outings. So we’re thrilled to back Houston at a price that only has a bit more juice than normal.

Brandon Bielak isn’t one of the bigger names in the Astros’ deep rotation, but he’s fared well so far in 2023. The right-hander owns a 3.19 ERA in 31.0 innings and has helped his team hold a lead at the F5 mark in two of his past three.

Key stat: Bielak has allowed one or fewer runs in three of his past four starts.

Quick pick

Astros over 4.5 runs (-124): Houston struggled against Manoah last year, scoring only twice in a 3-2 loss. Then again, most teams struggled against Manoah last year.

The opposite has been true so far this season, and Astros hitters are on a nice run right now which makes them worth a look at this number.

Over the past two weeks, Houston ranks fifth in wRC+ (118). Also, the Astros have topped this line in eight of their previous 10 games.