Blue Jays vs. Astros picks and odds: Bet on early offence from Houston

After an ugly loss in the series opener, the Blue Jays are back at it tonight against the Houston Astros.

The pregame narrative: A somewhat unexpected surge of offence came in Monday’s game, and we don’t see why the bats would cool down with a less impressive pitching matchup in store tonight. The Astros have some particularly enticing odds to strike early.

MLB odds as of 10:30 a.m. ET on 04/18/23.

Best Bet: Over 9 runs (-120)

We almost had this over taken care of in the first inning yesterday, as Houston supplied seven runs right away.

Another burst of early offence would be reasonable to bet on tonight (more on that in our quick picks), and overall this is a number the Jays and Astros should clear again. They’ve both cleared or pushed this line in six of their past nine games.

Tonight’s starters, Chris Bassitt and Jose Urquidy, haven’t had much luck against their respective opposition:

• Bassitt vs. HOU lineup: 80 PAs, .243 BA, .486 SLG, 18.8 K%
• Urquidy vs. TOR lineup: 66 PAs, .306 BA, .565 SLG, 19.7 K%

Prior history with both starters works in our favour, and we’re also just looking at a pair of strong offensive lineups.

Houston doesn’t pack quite the same punch without injured second baseman Jose Altuve, but the Astros still rank seventh in runs scored (86) and have an above-average wRC+ (105).

Toronto has a 111 wRC+, including a trio of individual sluggers inside the league’s top 25 in that category (Matt Chapman, first; Bo Bichette, 14th; Vladimir Guerrero Jr., 22nd).

Key stat: The Astros and Blue Jays have combined to average 9.9 runs per game so far.

Quick picks

Astros to score in first inning (+210): Houston hasn’t had a lot of YRFIs (yes-run-first-inning) so far, but after a seven-run explosion in the opening frame on Monday we like taking a swing here.

The Blue Jays have allowed a YRFI in seven of 17 games (41.2%), and opponents have a .311/.386/.595 slash line off them in the first inning.

Bassitt has allowed a pair of YRFIs in his first three outings, and he allowed two runs in the first when he last pitched in Houston (July 6, 2021).

Astros tie no bet - first three innings (-107): The Astros have led at the three-inning mark in all three of Urquidy’s starts this year, and they went 1-0-1 on the F3 moneyline in his two starts against the Jays last season.

Given his unstable numbers against this lineup, though, we’d prefer to back Houston on the tie no bet market instead of the standard moneyline. And this is still a nice price to get.

Bassitt has a 10.00 ERA in the first three innings this year, posting a 0-2-1 F3 moneyline record.