Astros vs Yankees Prediction, Picks, Odds

Yordan Alvarez has been mashing since returning from injury on July 26 and should be able to take advantage of Nestor Cortes Jr.'s vulnerabilities on the mound. Read more in our Astros vs. Yankees betting picks below.

After splitting the first two games in the series, the Houston Astros and New York Yankees are gearing up for playoff pushes heading into Game 3 of a four-game series in the Bronx.

Both teams are dealing with a loaded AL East in the Wild Card race with the Stros holding a two-game lead for the second spot, but still fighting to catch the Rangers in the AL West; they’re currently 1.5 games back of Texas.

The Yankees are 3.5 games back and will have to deal with Justin Verlander on Saturday as he makes his debut in Houston since coming over from the Mets. 

Find out where my best bets lie in our MLB picks and predictions for Astros vs. Yankees on Saturday, August 5.

Astros vs Yankees odds

Astros vs Yankees predictions

It’s a strange juxtaposition between the two pitchers taking the mound on Saturday afternoon. Justin Verlander is back with the team he won a World Series with looking as good as a 40-year-old can while Nestor Cortes Jr. is returning for the New York Yankees for his first start since May 30.

Prior to a left rotator cuff strain landing him on the 60-day injury list, Cortes Jr. was off to a rough start after being an All-Star in 2022. In 11 starts this season, he’s given up 58 hits and 34 earned runs in 59 1/3 innings with his WHIP over 1.5 in his last six starts.

The lefty is predominantly a fastball pitcher, using it more often than not (52.9% of the time in 2023), a pitch that brings back memories of Crush City in Houston with the way they’ve been bashing it this season.

Nobody in the Houston Astros lineup hits the ball harder than Yordan Alvarez with the two-time All-Star looking better than healthy after returning from an oblique injury on July 26.

When facing fastballs this season, Alvarez is batting .300 with a .563 slugging percentage and an 11 run value. It’s a pitch he’s been at his best against his whole career.

It helps that he’s slugging .560 against Cortes Jr.’s next go-to pitch (a cutter he’s using 28.7% of the time)… and he wouldn’t dare break out his sweeper (his third-most used pitch at 13.3%) against Alvarez’s .714 average and 1.714 slugging percentage.

Since rejoining the Astronomical’s lineup, Alvarez has 12 hits, four walks, three home runs, and two doubles in 34 plate appearances. 

My best bet: Yordan Alvarez Over 1.5 total bases (+120)

Astros vs Yankees same-game parlay

Yordan Alvarez Over 1.5 total bases (+120)

Astros ML (-150)

Under 8.5 (-115)

It’s not hard to imagine Verlander quickly finding success in Houston with the team surging in the second half. The club is 13-7 since the break and looking like serious contenders.

They’re in position to catch the Rangers if they can continue to play like they did against the Yankees in Game 2, a 7-3 win, and not struggle to score runs late like in their 4-3 Game 1 loss to New York.

In Game 2, Astros manager Dusty Baker made the decision to bat Alvarez and Kyle Tucker, two lefties, back-to-back and it paid off. The duo combined to go 3-for-7 with a home run, three RBI, and three walks.

“If I’ve got Tuck third, that takes away his speed, because you’re not going to steal because they’ll just walk Yordan,” Baker said of his decision. “This way, he’s swinging a good bat, and he can utilize his bat and speed.”

As for the Bronx Bombers, it’s been a headache of a season with Aaron Judge’s injury woes, sporadic pitching performances, and the AL East being an impossible mountain to climb.

Since returning from the All-Star break, the Pinstripes are 8-11 and have scored more than four runs seven times. They’ve hit the game total Under in 31 of their last 57 games at home.

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Astros vs Yankees moneyline and Over/Under analysis

The Astros won Game 2 at Yankee Stadium as heavy favorites with most books closing with them between -170 and -184.

They opened Saturday’s game as favorites once again with the best MLB odds being offered at -125, the line has only moved in their direction with most books having them between -138 and -150. The Yankees can be had at +130 at some books.

The total opened at 8.5 just about everywhere with a little movement down to 8 at some books, but it’s settled in at 8.5.

The under can be had at +100 in some places, which is enticing given that the Astros have hit the game total Under in 48 of their last 88 games.

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Trend to know

The  Astros have cashed the moneyline in 46 of their last 76 games (+9.20 units / 8% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Astros vs. Yankees

Astros vs Yankees game info

Starting pitchers

Justin Verlander (6-5, 3.15 ERA): It’s a reunion in Houston for the 40-year-old Verlander after the Astros traded for him at the deadline. The last time the three-time Cy Young winner was wearing the navy and orange, he was giving them a 3-2 lead over the Phillies in the World Series. Despite some ups and downs with the Mets, Verlander really got it together in July pitching 37 1/3 innings across six starts with 32 strikeouts and just seven earned runs. His ERA has steadily dropped in his last four starts and Houston is hoping that trend continues as they prepare for the postseason.

Nestor Cortes Jr. (5-2, 5.16 ERA): After earning his first All-Star last season, the 28-year-old Cortes Jr. has been a mess for a team that’s been all over the place since the start of the season. With a shoulder injury derailing him for the last two months, it’s hard to expect too much from him in his return. The last time we saw him, he was getting shelled... in his 26 1/3 innings pitched in May, he gave up 28 hits, 16 earned runs, and 10 walks. The Yankees will likely need to score in bunches to win this one.