Atletico vs Inter predictions & Champions League tips
Inter are playing outstanding football, winning their last 13 in all competitions.
They’ve taken charge of the Serie A title race, building a 16-point lead over rivals Milan at the summit. But, the Nerazzurri will be determined to go one better in the Champions League after losing to Manchester City in the final last season.
Atletico stand in their way of reaching the last eight. Diego Simeone’s men have been in poor form of late, winning only one of their last five matches in all competitions.
Although the Spanish outfit are at home, the Champions League odds don't rate their chances highly of beating Inter and remaining in the tournament.
Inter to advance to last eight
The Nerazzurri are a well oiled machine under Inzaghi. They’re unbeaten in their last 15 matches in all competitions and already have one hand on the Scudetto in Serie A, putting forward another impressive performance with a 1-0 win on the road against Bologna last time out.
Thiago Motta’s side tested Inter, who were forced to sit back and absorb pressure with only 40 per cent possession. But, the visitors were solid at the back and clinical in the final third as Yann Bisseck scored the only goal of the game.
The win over a good Bologna side was made more impressive by the absence of Lautaro Martinez, who was rested, and the Argentine is now primed and ready to take on Atletico.
Whereas Inter are firing on all cylinders, Simeone’s side are struggling. They slipped to a 2-0 defeat to 18th-placed Cadiz last time out.
Although Atletico have been putrid on the road, Los Rojiblancos have lost only one of 20 matches at the Metropolitano this term - a 1-0 defeat to Athletic Club in the Copa del Rey.
Antoine Griezmann has missed every match since the first leg after sustaining an ankle injury at San Siro.
Without him, Atletico have sorely lacked a cutting edge in the final third. Even if he is passed fit, who knows how effective he will be against an Inter defence that has conceded just four goals in their last 10 games.
Inter will look to use their defensive strength to nullify the Atletico attack, knowing a draw will suffice to see them through. But, there will be opportunities on the counter and looking at betting apps, we like the price of 31/20 with 10Bet for an Inter win.
Martinez to put Atletico to the sword
Martinez was rested at the weekend by Inzaghi in preparation for the last 16 duel in Madrid. Although the Scudetto is important for the Nerazzurri, such is the strength of their position at the top of Serie A, they were able to rest their key man for the clash with Bologna.
The Inter captain will likely slot back into the team along with Federico Dimarco and Benjamin Pavard. Martinez created Arnautovic’s winner in the first leg and has been in excellent form in front of goal all season.
The Argentine has scored in seven of his last 12, including a brace against Lecce and a goal in Inter’s 4-0 home win over Atalanta at the end of February.
Martinez is a constant thorn in the side of opposing defenders. He will relish playing on the shoulder of an Atletico backline that could be forced to press forward.
Martinez’s partnership with Marcus Thuram has been potent this season, combining for 33 goals and nine assists in Serie A. They’ve not been quite as effective in the Champions League, but both could find space to torment Los Rojiblancos on Wednesday.
Inter have proven they only need one chance and in a tight game we like Martinez to find the net. Betting sites have priced him at 2/1 to score any time, but we’re going with the 26-year-old to open the scoring at odds of 11/2 with BetVictor.
Will Atletico’s discipline fail them?
Atletico are not a team that has covered themselves in glory when it has come to maintaining their discipline in the past.
There are countless examples in the heat of a LaLiga title race or Champions League knockout matches when the red mist has descended, and that’s just Simeone on the touchline. Los Rojiblancos collected four of their 16 yellow cards in this season's Champions League in the first leg.
It could be another frustrating night for Simeone and his team, especially considering their recent form. Mario Hermoso earned his first Champions League booking of the campaign at San Siro, although he has seven to his name in LaLiga. Saul Niguez is not far behind him with six cautions.
New betting sites have a price of 19/20 for over 2.5 Atletico cards, but referee Szymon Marciniak has averaged over six cautions per game in his previous three Champions League assignments.
With that in mind, we’re taking over 5.5 total cards at 21/20 with Unibet for our final Atletico vs Inter prediction.
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Simon Sinclair is an experienced sports journalist, who has written for national publications for football, cricket, NFL and many more. He contributes tips on a wide range of sports for The Independent.
