ATP Cincinnati tips: Hubert Hurkacz looks good value against Stefanos Tsitsipas

Derek Bilton is back with his weekly piece and this week's focus is the Western and Southern Open in Cincinnati.

2023-08-17ATP Cincinnati tips: Hubert Hurkacz looks good value against Stefanos Tsitsipas

We had a shock winner in Toronto as Jannik Sinner enjoyed a perfect week to take down the title in Hogtown.

The Italian is just 21 but already up to No 6 in the world after that win in Canada. And while is hair may not be improving, his game certainly is. Sinner is an aggressive baseliner who is adding power and finesse to his game. It does not hurt that he is beginning to fill out and look the part physically too now.

That was his first Masters 1000 title and is unlikely to be his last. However, he will not be going back-to-back and winning the Western & Southern Open (formerly the Cincinnati Masters) this week after he lost in a surprise to Dusan Lajovic a few days ago.

Our tip last time out Daniil Medvedev lost in the quarter-finals to an inspired Alex de Minaur. I did my conkers, but as Coronation Street lothario Ken Barlow once mused 'It's a bad day, not a bad life'.

The bookies once again cannot seem to see past either Carlos Alcaraz or Novak Djokovic in Ohio.

With victory in Cincinnati over Jordan Thompson, Alcaraz became just the fourth player since 2000 to win 50+ matches in consecutive seasons before turning 21. He is in good company too with the other three players being Lleyton Hewitt (2000-01), Andy Roddick (2002-03) and Rafael Nadal (2005-06).

The Spaniard is a potent amalgam of charm and chutzpah, but to be fair he has not been at his dazzling best since that Wimbledon victory. Alcaraz has not really found his mojo yet in North America, losing to Tommy Paul in Toronto in a shock and needing 3-sets to get it done against Thompson. 

The focus obviously will be defending his US Open title, where Planet Sport Bet currently rate him as a 5/4 shot to win at Flushing Meadows once again.

The brilliant Spaniard is a 7/4 shout to win Cincy, but based on his most recent displays on US soil that price seems pretty skinny - especially as he faces US star Paul in his next match - so I will not drink the serpent juice!

Meanwhile, Djokovic filled out an entire stadium for a practice session on his return to the US earlier this week. The Serb was essentially banned for the best part of two years from America due to his stance on COVID vaccines, but he is back and looking to make a splash in Cincinnati this week.

Djokovic at 21/10 ordinarily would be a price worth steaming into at any tournament, but I am loathe to pull the trigger until I see what shape his game is in. Indeed historically, this has not been a tournament where he has shone - just one win in 14 previous visits.

In fact, nothing is really jumping off the page in terms of an outright fancy, so instead, I am going to roll the dice and row in with Hubert Hurkacz at 6/4 with Planet Sport Bet to beat Stefanos Tsitsipas.

Tsitsipas holds an 11-5 record at the Western & Southern Open, where he made the semis in 2020 and 2021 before reaching the championship match in 2022. However, his form in the last couple of months has been all kinds of awful and 6/4 chance Hurkacz can cash in in a game that will likely be decided by a couple of tiebreaks.

Tsitsipas has a positive 7-2 head-to-head record against the big Pole. Interestingly, both of Hurkacz's wins have come on hardcourt - in Miami and Montreal - so technically he is unbeaten against him on hardcourts in North America.

Hurkacz has a huge serve and some big groundies and is basically horrible to play against when he gets into a rhythm.

I would not be betting on the Greek - who announced recently that his father Apostolos would no longer be his head coach - with stolen money right now and if you are seriously considering a lump on Stefanos in Ohio at 8/15 then maybe take up CrossFit or golf, as gambling is clearly not for you.