ATP World Finals predictions, tennis tips and odds

Italy’s Pala Alpitour once again plays host to the tournament that pits the eight top ranked men’s singles players in the world.

The Tour Finals is split into a group stage, with each player competing against three other group opponents. The top two in both groups then advance to the semi-finals.

Green Group:

Novak Djokovic
Jannik Sinner
Stefanos Tsitsipas
Holger Rune

Red Group:

Carlos Alcaraz
Daniil Medvedev
Andrey Rublev
Alexander Zverev

The structure means even a player like Djokovic can afford to lose one match and still lift the trophy at the end of it.

And UK bookmakers reckon there’s very little chance anyone but Djokovic will be celebrating come 19 November. 

Here are our three tennis betting tips heading into the final tournament of the ATP season.

Djokovic to triumph in Turin?

At 36, Djokovic remains the dominant force in men’s tennis and the odds are suggesting another triumph here.

His 2022 final victory over Casper Ruud was his first since 2015, which may suggest Djokovic isn’t the all-powerful force you’d expect at the ATP Finals.

However, one glance at his recent results shows why he is the firm favourite here. He has won four of his last five tournaments – including the French Open, the US Open, and Paris Masters – and was the defeated finalist at Wimbledon this year.

What’s more, he has a winning record over five of the seven opponents here in Turin.

Djokovic does have a low price ahead of the tournament given his record this season. But the odds are likely only going to shorten as the tournament unfolds, so getting in there now could be a prudent move if you believe Djokovic will triumph.

Will Alcaraz struggle in Red Group?

This is a first ATP Finals for Alcaraz and it might prove a stretch too far for the Spaniard. 

His form is poor heading into Turin. He hasn’t reached a tournament final since losing to Djokovic in Cincinnati back in August, and endured miserable events at the Shanghai and Paris Masters.

Alcaraz is arguably better on the slower, more technical surface of clay. At 20, he doesn’t yet have the raw muscle to scare opponents on the hard court.

Yes, Alcaraz is a remarkable talent but so is everyone in the ATP Finals. 

He is top seed in the Red Group but doesn’t have a winning record against any of Medvedev, Rublev, or Zverev. 

New betting sites have Alcaraz as second favourite to win this tournament but he could easily become unstuck and end up facing Djokovic in the semis.

Medvedev has history in the ATP Finals winning the event in 2020, and has been in solid form without winning a major event on the tour of late. We're backing him to emerge as winner of the Red Group at 2/1 with William Hill.

Can Sinner make the final

At this stage of the season form is everything and Jannik Sinner is peaking at just the right time. 

The Italian has won the Canadian Open, China Open and Vienna Open in the second half of the season, beating Medvedev in the final of the latter two tournaments.

Sinner has a losing record against all three of his Green Group opponents. 

However, Sinner beat Stefanos Tsitsipas in their most recent meeting in Rotterdam (indoor, hard) and had to retire when facing Holger Rune in the only hard-court meeting between the pair.

Considering his form, Sinner is an interesting shout to finish second behind Djokovic in the Green Group. That could set up a semi-final meeting with Alcaraz or, perhaps, Medvedev. 

Sinner has won his last two matches against Russia’s Medvedev. Perhaps a final berth is not a bad consideration as a result. 

An each-way bet on Sinner at 11/2 with BoyleSports pays out 1/3 of the price if the Italian reaches the final, while the entire wager wins if he triumphs.

Joe Short is a freelance journalist and former editor at the Daily Express, covering politics, football, tennis and darts, among other things. He contributes sports betting tips for The Independent.