US Open betting tips: Best bets for the men's singles at Flushing Meadows

Tennis betting tips: US Open men's singles

3pts win Novak Djokovic at 5/4 (Betway, 888sport)

1pt e.w. Alex Zverev at 40/1 (Unibet, Betfred)

0.5pt e.w. Hubert Hurkacz at 80/1 (General)

0.5pt e.w. Tommy Paul at 150/1 (General)

1pt Tommy Paul to win quarter three at 13/2 (Paddy Power, Betfair)

US Open – men’s singles

• New York, USA (outdoor hard)

I write this preview just five days after watching a tremendous Cincinnati Masters final which is certainly a match-of-the-year contender.

It featured the world’s top two players – and the top two in the market for this US Open – and as I watched proceedings unfold it was difficult to believe that others can get to the level the pair produced.

If you watched that contest, which eventually saw NOVAK DJOKOVIC beat Carlos Alcaraz (but only after saving match point), then it’s likely you’ll be hoping to witness a rematch on Arthur Ashe Stadium in two weeks’ time and there’s every chance that will be the case.

Yet from a betting point of view, does value look thin on the ground when it comes to the two favourites?

Picking one ahead of the other is a tough business.

Their two most recent meetings have been extremely tight, Cincinnati coming little over a month after the duo’s five-set Wimbledon final won by Alcaraz.

The same could be said of their French Open semi-final – until Alcaraz began cramping shortly after levelling the match at one set all.

Perhaps a better way of supporting them is as a pair and backing an Alcaraz v Djokovic final – that’s available at 21/10 (Paddy Power/Betfair).

Yet for all the talk about these two, it should be remembered that it was not all plain sailing in Cincinnati.

Alcaraz was just a point from defeat in his semi-final against Hubert Hurkacz – I’m still cursing about how our 66/1 pick missed a fairly routine forehand on that match point!

And the Spaniard was troubled by others too, playing a three-setter in every round of the tournament. He found a better level in the final but it wasn’t a consistently high quality from him across the week.

As for Djokovic, the main worry to take away from Cincy was the image of him struggling physically in the heat and humidity of the final.

Wrapping himself in ice towels, he looked gone for all money when he called the doctor onto the court at a set and a break down.

New York can be pretty unforgiving on that front too, especially with the event coming towards the end of a long season, although at least the long-term forecast is for temperatures not to get as high as they did in Ohio.

Of course, Djokovic is often able to produce the goods when on the ropes and his renowned mental resilience was again very much on show as he battled back – just as Alcaraz had done the previous day. That mental factor is a big one for opponents to deal with.

In short, the Big Two look the men to beat but they are not infallible.

Sadly for their opponents, other elements of the US Open conditions seem unlikely to work against the market leaders.

The Laykold surface, first laid ahead of the 2020 tournament, is regarded as pretty fast – it was originally declared “20-30% faster” than the previous DecoTurf courts by the USTA.

The main Arthur Ashe Stadium court has tended the play slower than the outside courts, however.

You have heard about ball changes this year but that’s only on the women’s side – the men will play with the same Wilson model used 12 months ago which was when Alcaraz emerged victorious.

Djokovic, famously, didn’t play that event as he was banned from entering the US due to his COVID vaccination status. His last visit, in 2021, saw him beaten in the final by Daniil Medvedev, a match in which the Grand Slam was on the line.

How about the draw?

Well, it’s certainly worth taking a more detailed look as Djokovic was clearly the ‘winner’ when the was made on Thursday.

Let’s go through it, quarter by quarter.

Quarter one

As top seed, Alcaraz sits at the head of the draw. It looks a decent enough opening week for the Spaniard but things could get tough in week two.

Jannik Sinner is seeded to be his quarter-final opponent, the man who held match point against Alcaraz in last year’s tournament in New York.

The Italian also arrives in good form having recently won the big warm-up event in Toronto, while a look at the holds-and-breaks stats for the season on hardcourts shows Sinner with a total of 116 (holding serve 86% of the time and breaking it 30%) – that’s four points higher than Alcaraz.

Sinner certainly has the tools to trouble Alcaraz (their head to head sits at 3-3), although I wouldn’t rule out ALEX ZVEREV at a much bigger price.

It’s been a long road back from a serious ankle injury sustained at last year’s French Open but the German is now showing signs of his best tennis and it took Djokovic to stop him in Cincinnati at the semi-final stage where the 7-6 7-5 scoreline is reflective of how close the match was.

As in Cincinnati, conditions in NYC should aid his big serve and punishing groundstrokes from the baseline – notably his last two appearances have brought a semi-final and a runner-up finish.

Alcaraz remains the most likely winner of this section but Zverev (who leads the Spaniard 3-2 in their series) could offer some value – he’s available at 40/1 in the outright market and 9/1 in the quarter betting.

Quarter two

The 2021 champion Medvedev heads up Q2 and he has a good history at this event having also made the 2019 final and the semis in 2020.

Going back to those hold/break stats, Medvedev is up at a very strong 120 (86% holds, 34% breaks), which is second only to Djokovic (121).

However, most of the data in that set comes from his terrific early-season run which brought hardcourt titles in Rotterdam, Doha, Dubai and Miami.

He’s looked a way off that sort of form in the warm-up tournaments, losing to Alex de Minaur in Toronto and Zverev in Cincinnati and I think he’s worth taking on here.

The problem is many of the other principals are struggling too – Andrey Rublev is out of sorts, while last year’s semi-finalist Karen Khachanov hasn’t played since Roland Garros due to injury.

I’m intrigued to see what Kei Nishikori is capable of – he loved it in New York back in the day, making the 2014 final and also reaching two other semi-finals.

But that was before injury gripped him – and the Laykold was put down. Having made a decent return to the tour, a knee problem forced him out of Toronto and Cincinnati so it’s impossible to suggest he’s ready to go deep.

Instead, HUBERT HURKACZ could be the man to follow.

The serve is key to the Pole’s game and that shot has been in good working order of late, helping him reach the last four in Cincinnati.

He’s been beaten by Alcaraz in both of this month’s Masters 1000 events but both contests were very close – Hurkacz twice being a tie-break away from winning in Toronto and then losing from match point up in Cincinnati.

Still, the way he played should be encouraging, especially at a venue where the serve should get plenty of cut-through.

The off-putting thing is Hurkacz’s record at Flushing Meadows where he’s yet to go beyond the second round in five visits.

Nevertheless, a small, each-way bet is the advice at 80/1.

Quarter three

While this quarter should be competitive, there’s no getting away from the view that this is the weakest of the four.

The man seeded to reach the semis is Holger Rune, last seen withdrawing from Cincinnati after mid-match treatment for a back problem supposedly sustained while playing on clay at the post-Wimbledon Hopman Cup event.

Add in an opening-round defeat to Marcos Giron in Toronto and Rune is without a hardcourt victory this summer.

It’s also significant that he’s never reached an ATP final on outdoor hard and I’m pretty sure it won’t be happening here given the circumstances.

Casper Ruud is next in line and it should not be forgotten he made last year’s final, somewhat unexpectedly. He’s actually now played in three of the last six Slam finals but another here seems unlikely.

He’s gone just 6-8 on the hardcourts in 2023 and is yet to win back-to-back matches.

Frances Tiafoe is another who went well here 12 months ago but who isn’t in the same sort of form.

Perhaps Alejandro Davidovich Fokina, who played well in Toronto, or Seb Korda could step to the fore, although the latter has just withdrawn from his scheduled semi-final in Winston-Salem.

Instead, the man I like here is TOMMY PAUL.

I’d arguably make him the host nation’s best hope yet he’s on offer at 150/1 in the outright market, trimmed from a standout 250/1. Even that looks disrespectful.

Paul beat Alcaraz in Toronto and then pushed him hard again in their Cincinnati rematch the following week.

Earlier this season he made the semis of the Australian Open (beating his potential last-32 opponent Fokina among others) and also defeated Taylor Fritz en route to the Acapulco final.

He’s steadily improved over the past year and a half – having ended 2021 at 43rd in the ranking list, Paul now sits 14th.

Referring back to those hold/break stats on hardcourts this season, Paul’s total of 107 is none too shabby and certainly decent in this quarter – it’s the same as Rune and better than Ruud and Fokina with only Tiafoe (110) having better such numbers.

Yes, his US Open record isn’t the greatest but he did play well here 12 months ago when he only lost in five sets to eventual finalist Ruud.

I think Paul is very much worth taking a chance on in the outright market, but the best bet with Paul is probably going to be for him to win the quarter and I'd recommend watching out for more prices going up before play begins.

Quarter four

As I’ve already said, Djokovic has certainly done well in the draw.

The bottom side is clearly the weaker of the two halves with the view that the heat could be the Serb’s biggest threat only hardening as a result.

OK, Felix Auger-Aliassime and Stefanos Tsitsipas are both capable on their day but neither has been in good form of late with FAA’s season as a whole very disappointing.

This draw looks to give Djokovic of cruising through – and he won’t be afraid of whoever comes through quarter three – and saving energy could be crucial, especially if another long battle with Alcaraz awaits in the final.

Their three sets in Cincinnati lasted three hours and 50 minutes so it’s clear that fitness and fatigue could have a big part to play should they meet again on September 10.

The weather forecast suggests the heat worry is not a big one, while the majority of Djokovic matches are highly likely to be scheduled for the night sessions when it is cooler.

All things considered, Djokovic looks the most likely champion to me, although it will be down to the individual as to whether 5/4 represents any market value.

My approach will be to back him to relatively small stakes and also get with some longer shots, who look to offer more value.

Posted at 1200 BST on 26/08/23

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