Auburn vs West Virginia Odds, Lines & Picks (Jan. 28)

Auburn vs West Virginia Betting Analysis

For starters, the analytics community prefers West Virginia straight up. KenPom’s metrics rank the Mountaineers 21st in the country, three spots higher than Auburn. West Virginia grades out significantly higher on offense (27th vs 66th) and has been one of the 13 unluckiest teams in the nation per KP’s grading system.

NCAA Net rankings have the Mountaineers graded five spots higher than Auburn, in large part due to the quality of opponents they’ve faced. The Big 12 is significantly stronger than the SEC in college hoops. West Virginia has played 12 Quad 1 games, while the Tigers have faced only four Quad 1 opponents.

The Mountaineers are just 4-8 in those outings, but they’ve been extremely competitive in most. Five of the eight losses have been by single digits, with the three of the defeats coming by 6 points or less.

To date, West Virginia has had the 10th most difficult strength of schedule in the country compared to Auburn who’s faced the 47th toughest. That’s why the Mountaineers currently project as an 11-seed in the NCAA Tournament, and have comparable March Madness odds to the Tigers.

Auburn vs West Virginia Predictions

What makes West Virginia a challenging opponent is their style of play. This is hard nosed, veteran laden group. Their top-six are all seniors and they force turnovers at a top-30 rate. They also take advantage of their opportunities at the line, and they crash the offensive glass.

The Mountaineers are 15th in free throw attempts and 11th in makes from the charity stripe. They rank 26th in offensive rebounding percentage, pulling down 10 boards a game in enemy territory.

Auburn on the other hand, boasts a middling offense and relies heavily on defense. They rank fifth in the nation in opponent effective field goal percentage, but a large reason for that has been the quality of their opposition. In games versus non top-100 opponents, the Tigers yield 61 points per contest. Versus top-100 opponents that number jumps to 67 points per game.

Auburn is just 3-3 straight up versus top-45 opponents, and only 9-11 ATS for the season. Saturday will mark the first time they’ve been an underdog, and dating back to 2019, Bruce Pearl’s teams are just 9-12-1 ATS when catching points.

West Virginia meanwhile, has covered in three of its last four, including an outright win over a top-14 TCU team 10 days ago by nine points.

Pick: West Virginia -3.5 (-115)