Australian Open Tip Sheet: Tsitsipas is 5-0 against Khachanov. Why we like Karen at +4.5 games

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Australian Open Tip Sheet: Tsitsipas is 5-0 against Khachanov. Why we like Karen at +4.5 games

Plus, a very fun way to bet on Novak Djokovic.

Karen Khachanov vs. Stefanos Tsitsipas

It feels like Khachanov has turned a corner in the last six months, yet no one wants to talk about it. The Russian has now made it to the semifinals of back-to-back majors—and if not for some key points, he could have beaten Casper Ruud to reach the US Open final. Still, that experience should make him stronger.

This head-to-head series is as lopsided as it gets: 5-0, to Tsitsipas. But Tsitsipas hasn’t played this version of Khachanov. The 26-year-old has an 87.2% hold percentage to start the 2023 season, the highest mark of his career. He also has a break percentage of 30.4% this year. Khachanov is putting a lot more balls in play, and he looks confident in baseline exchanges against everyone. That might change a bit against Tsitsipas, who, like Khachanov, is 15-2 in sets in Melbourne.

Khachanov is smart enough to know that he can make Tsitsipas uncomfortable by attacking the Greek star’s sometimes-shaky backhand. We expect him to do that quite a bit, while also handling his business when he has the ball on his racquet. That should be more than enough for Khachanov to cover this generous spread. And despite their head-to-head, it really wouldn’t be all that surprising if he were to win outright. BET: Khachanov +4.5 Games (-125)