Pick of the Day: Stefanos Tsitsipas vs. Jannik Sinner, ATP Finals

Sinner won their last meeting in straight sets, but Tsitsipas had dominated the head-to-head before that.

As for this specific matchup, I just don’t see much that separates Sinner and Tsitsipas. That makes it hard not to back Tsitsipas to win a single set, especially at a reasonable price. Before losing to Sinner in straight sets earlier this year, Tsitsipas was 5-1 in his previous six meetings with the Italian. His big serve and elite forehand have always given Sinner problems, especially with the youngster being prone to shaky service games. And I just don’t think anything is different regarding the matchup now.

Sinner is obviously in great form entering this event, as he won a title in Vienna just a few weeks ago. But Tsitsipas has also been figuring things out lately, as he’s 9-4 in his last 13 matches. Tsitsipas has also picked up wins over players like Felix Auger-Aliassime, Alexander Zverev and Karen Khachanov in recent weeks.

If this match was taking place at any point over the summer, I would have jumped at the opportunity to bet Sinner. However, a confident Tsitsipas is a dangerous Tsitsipas, so this price feels way off to me. At the very least, I expect Tsitsipas to force a deciding third set here. But I also think it’s worth putting a small play on Tsitipas to win at +195. He was my pick to be one of the two players to emerge from this group.

Pick: Tsitsipas +1.5 Sets (-150) & Tsitsipas ML (+195 – 0.5 units)