Avalanche vs. Maple Leafs picks and odds: Bet the over

The Colorado Avalanche visit the Toronto Maple Leafs on Wednesday night.

The pregame narrative: Colorado and Toronto are struggling to keep pucks out of their own net, making the over a solid wager in this contest. The Avs have been better on the road than at home this season, putting some value on their moneyline. We’re also going to take the under on Toronto’s shot line in this contest.

NHL odds as of 8:51 a.m. on 03/15/2023.

Avalanche vs. Maple Leafs picks

Best Bet: Over 6.5 goals (-109)

With neither team getting any consistency between the pipes, we’re expecting plenty of goals.

Colorado is the second-best under team in the NHL this season, going below the game total in 60% of the squad’s contests. That number has been dropping in recent outings, though, thanks to a brutal .843 save percentage across the last seven days, according to Natural Stat Trick.

The Avs have allowed 11 goals in their past three games.

The Maple Leafs aren’t fairing much better, either. They’ve also allowed 11 markers in their last three and own a sub-par .875 save percentage during this stretch.

Both offences are finding their stride, too, as Toronto’s averaging 4.6 goals per game over the team’s last three while Colorado’s scoring 4.75 over the squad’s last four.

Key stat: The Maple Leafs have gone over this number in three consecutive contests, and the Avalanche have surpassed it in two of their last three.

Quick picks

Avalanche moneyline (+120): In a game between two teams playing some strong hockey, we’re going to take the plus-money odds. Colorado’s won nine of the squad’s last 13 and five of the last six on the road. This stretch includes victories over playoff teams like the Minnesota Wild and Winnipeg Jets.

Some key underlying numbers also suggest the Avalanche are the hotter team entering this contest. The Avs own an impressive 55.25% expected goals percentage across the last week, while the Maple Leafs own an underwhelming 47.59% mark in the category.

Colorado’s been better on the road (19-11-1) than at home (18-11-5) this season.

Maple Leafs under 34.5 shots on goal (-112): This line seems a little ambitious for Toronto. The Maple Leafs are averaging 32.2 shots per game this season, and are facing an Avalanche team surrendering just 31.5 shots per contest.

The Maple Leafs aren’t usurping this total with any sort of regularity, either, falling short of it in eight of their last 10 games.