Ayr Gold Cup: five key runners and how to bet £20 ante-post

The Virgin Bet Ayr Gold Cup is my favourite big sprint handicap to have a punt in because it’s often run on soft ground and horses proven over further, whose stamina is brought into play, can be seriously underestimated.

And unlike in the Wokingham and Stewards’ Cup, where the draw and luck in running can make such a difference, winners can jump from just about anywhere. You don’t get so many hard-luck stories and the best horse usually prevails.

I think we can safely assume Saturday week’s edition is going to be run on easy going, at the very least, with rain forecast just about every day at the track between now and the big day.

Here are five to keep in mind, in preferred order, with a suggested ante-post betting strategy.

1 NORTHERN EXPRESS

Trainer: Michael Dods. Odds: 25-1

The five-year-old has had 27 races and none have been over less than 7f, but don’t let that put you off! When the ground is slow at Ayr, as seems likely on Saturday week, I look away from the genuine speedsters and focus on those proven over further.

Since 2001, for example, there have been only four Ayr Gold Cup winners who have either not won previously over at least 7f or shown they are fully effective over longer trips. And the quartet who were exceptions won their renewals on good going or faster, when the emphasis was on speed.

Captain Ramius, the 2012 winner, had previously won six races, all over 7f, and similarly, Highland Colori triumphed a year later having gained five of his previous seven wins over 7f. Regal Parade, the 2008 winner, had only previously won over 7f, while Quito’s three wins before his victory in 2003 were also over that trip.

Northern Express wins again at York in July

Northern Express usually travels strongly and looks to have the pace to cope with dropping in trip. He may even improve for it because races run out at an end-to-end gallop undoubtedly suit him well.

He’s been in the form of his life this season, winning the Thirsk Hunt Cup and a midsummer event at York plus being placed in several hugely competitive big-field handicaps at Ascot and on the Knavesmire.

He won at the Gold Cup meeting in 2021, having been an unlucky second 12 months earlier. They have been his only runs at the course. All ground comes alike to him but, clearly, I’m hoping for soft conditions and an attritional edition.

2 FRESH

Trainer: James Fanshawe. Odds: 14-1

Fresh was unlucky at The Curragh

He won two valuable 7f handicaps at Ascot last year but his supporters have had little to shout about in the past year. However, he’s dropped back below his last winning mark and his form figures this year mask a couple of eye-catching efforts that suggest he’s lost none of his ability.

His staying-on sixth at The Curragh last Sunday, in a hot 22-runner affair, needs a significant upgrade as he didn’t get anything like the rub of the green.

Fresh’s best efforts have been at Ascot but he has done half of his racing there. Ayr’s straight track should serve him just as well and he’s versatile regards underfoot conditions. Like four of the past nine winners, he has an official rating of 101.

One niggle is that he’s entered in a Group Three contest back at The Curragh 24 hours after the Ayr Gold Cup but the handicap would make much more sense, not least because it’s worth considerably more money.

3 RAMAZAN

Trainer: Richard Fahey. Odds: 20-1

Ramazan wins at Haydock this summer

Not too many three-year-olds get into the Ayr Gold Cup these days, so I wouldn’t worry too much about the fact that only two have scooped the spoils in the past 20 years.

Ramazan has a progressive profile and Richard Fahey, his trainer, is seeking a third win in the race. One of his winners was another three-year-old who arrived on the up: Don’t Touch in 2015.

The Kodiac gelding was an unlucky loser in a nursery at the Gold Cup meeting last year and, since then, has run mostly over 7f, including when scoring at Chepstow last time in gritty style.

He’s clearly at home over that trip but 6f on soft ground should suit him just as well, if not better. His half-brother, Spinning Memories, was a smart act over 6f/7f with is efforts including a close fourth in the Group One Prix Maurice de Gheest in 2019. Ramazan has some way to go to match his exploits but might have more in his locker.

4 SUMMERGHAND

Trainer: Dave O’Meara. Odds: 12-1

What an incredible sprint handicapper he’s been over the years. He defied Father Time when winning this race as an eight-year-old last year, having won the Stewards’ Cup in 2020 after being beaten a nose in the Wokingham earlier that summer. His other numerous wins/big runs include a fourth in the 2019 edition of this contest.

At nine, having had 84 races, you would think his best days are behind him, but not a bit of it. In the past month, he’s been touched off in the Great St Wilfred, dead-heated at York and then been an unlucky fourth at The Curragh (in the same race Fresh contested).

The 5lb penalty he must carry for sharing the spoils at York (should it be halved in such instances?) could end up costing him as it means he is actually 3lb badly in. But he’s in great heart and, as we all know, big-field handicaps bring out the best in him. All ground seems to come alike to him, although heavy going probably isn’t ideal.

5 FAST RESPONSE

Trainer: Karl Burke. Odds: 20-1

Fast Response wins at Nottingham

Like so many of Fast Company’s offspring, she’s in her element when the mud is flying. If the ground does get deep, then she will need considering, although keep in mind she’s also engaged in Group races at Doncaster (on Sunday) and at The Curragh (Sunday week).

Fast Response has failed to get her head in front in six starts this term but she again ran well at Chester last time, when beating all bar the smart Mitbaahy in Listed company. She had also run well at that track over 7f in mid-July.

Those efforts show she’s at home on a sharp track going around a bend but memories of her performances at Nottingham and Doncaster last autumn, on straight tracks like Ayr, stick in my mind. In particular, she was superb when winning the Listed Wentworth Stakes at Town Moor in early November, when she cantered all over the opposition and had such as Art Power and Commanche Falls well adrift.

End-of-season form like that can often be unreliable but you could not fail to notice the way she made light of the heavy going. It will be a case of the more rain the better for her.

How To Bet £20 ante-post

Northern Express £5 win and £3 each-way at 25-1 with Coral and Ladbrokes (four places)

Fresh £1.50 each-way at a general 14-1 (four places)

Ramazan £1.50each-way at 20-1 with Betfair and Paddy Power (five places)

Summerghand £1 each-way win at 12-1 with bet365

Fast Response £1 win at a general 20-1