Ayr Gold Cup Trends To Find Saturday's Handicap Winner

Sports Lens

22 September 2023

Ayr Gold Cup Trends To Find Saturday's Handicap Winner

Use our 2023 Ayr Gold trends ahead of this Saturday’s 6f handicap at Ayr racecourse to find the best profile of horse based on past winners – can last year’s hero Summerghand win again?

Best Horse Racing Offers for Ayr Gold Cup

Ayr Gold Cup Trends: Key Stats To Help Find The Ayr Winner

The Ayr Gold Cup is the big handicap horse race this weekend as a field of 24 runners will be chasing the lucrative £92,772 first prize.

12 months ago, we saw the David O’Meara-trained Summerghand land the prize and the 9 year-old is back for more off a 5lbs higher mark – he’ll be looking to become the first back-to-back winner since 1931.

The Ayr Gold Cup has also been a top race for the best UK horse racing bookmakers as there’s only been four winning favourites since 1980. That said, three of those have come since 2015, so could the tide be turning on this front?

Being a handicap, which is run over 6f, there are also many stats that have built up over the years.

With that in mind, let’s see that the key Ayr Gold Cup trends are, that you can also use to find the best profiles based on past winners of the race.

When Is The 2023 Ayr Gold Cup?

��Time: 3:35pm
��Date: Saturday 23rd Sept 2023
��Racecourse: Ayr
��: Winner: £92,772
�� TV: Racing TV / ITV4

Ayr Gold Cup Trends

22/22 – Raced within the last 8 weeks
19/22 – Raced within the last 4 weeks
19/22 – Had 3 or more wins to their name
17/22 – Had won over 6f before
17/22 – Failed to win their last race
14/22 – Rated 90-101
15/22 – Carried 9-1 or more
15/22 – Came from a double-figure stall
13/22 – Aged 4 or 5 years-old
13/22 – Finished in the top 4 last time out
12/22 – Had 7 or more runs that season
12/22 – Unplaced favourites
12/22 – Winning distance 1 length or less
11/22 – Ran at Doncaster (3), Goodwood (5) or Haydock (3) last time out
11/22 – Had raced at Ayr before
5/22 – Trained by Kevin Ryan
3/22 – Winning favourites (4 winning favs since 1980)
2/22– Ridden by Frankie Dettori
2/22 – Trained by Andrew Balding (2 of the last 10)
0/22 – Filly or mare winners
13 of the last 14 winners came from stalls 8 or higher (4 of the last 18 winners came from stall 8)
Since 1980 just 7 winners aged 6 or older
The last horse to win back-to-back races was Heronsiea in 1930/31

Having a Recent Run Is Key For Finding Ayr Gold Cup Winner

The first 2023 Ayr Gold Cup trends to have on your side to look for horses that had run in the last 8-4 weeks.

ALL of the last 22 winners had run in the last 2 months, but we can rule more with a massive 86% of the last 22 winners having also run in the last 4 weeks.

Some of the fancied runners to have NOT raced in the last 4 weeks are Orazio, Fast Response, Aleezdancer and Bielsa.

Don’t Worry If Your Fancy Didn’t Win Last Time Out

Bringing winning form to any horse race is an obvious plus, but that isn’t so important in the Ayr Gold Cup.

77% of the last 22 winners failed to win their most recent race, which is something that might be able to knock a few more out once the final entries are out.

93% Of The Last 14 Winners Hailed From Stalls 8 or Higher

Next up with the Ayr Gold Cup trends is to look at the draw. This will come out two days before the race, but the Ayr Gold Cup stats tell us that 13 of the last 14 winners came from stalls 8 or higher – this will let us rule of 7 horses.

Last year’s winner Summerghand won from stall 12 – with the last 6 winners drawn 12 or higher.

The horses drawn 7 or lower are Bielsa, Mondammej, Fast Response, Probe, Aleezdancer, Lethal Levi and Paws For Thought.

4 & 5 Year-Olds Have The Best Records Of Late

Last year we saw the 8 year-old Summerghand win the Ayr Gold Cup and actually in 2021 Bielsa won as a 6 year-old.

Both are entered again, but the overall age stats tell us that the slightly younger horses have the best record.

13 of the last 22 winners were aged 4 or 5 (59%), while since 1980 there have only been 8 winners aged 6 or older.

68% Of The Last 22 Winners Carried 9st 1lbs or More

Being a handicap race, then weight carried is important too. It’s a race that the better horses and those carrying more in weight have fared best.

This is backed up with 68% of the last 22 winners carrying 9st 1lb or more in weight.

Note A Recent Run at Doncaster, Goodwood or Haydock

Exactly half of the last 22 Ayr Gold Cup winners had also run at Doncaster, Goodwood or Haydock in their most recent run.

Some may have figured in last Saturday’s Portland Handicap at Donny, or even in the Group One Sprint Cup at Haydock – recent back form is certainly worth a check.

Respect Any Kevin Ryan or David O’Meara Runners

In terms of the best yards to look out for, then the Kevin Ryan (5 wins) and the David O’Meara (2 wins) stables standout.

They’ve, in fact, won the Ayr Gold Cup between them 6 times in the last 11 – Ryan 4 times and O’Meara twice.

This year, Ryan has Aleezdancer, Bielsa, Magical Spirit – while O’Meara has Summerghand, Escobar and Aberama Gold,

Just 4 Winning Favourites Since 1980

Any big-field sprint handicap is often going to be a top race for the bookmakers.

This theory is in-play again in the Ayr Gold Cup with just 4 winning favourites since 1980.

Yes, three of these successful market leaders have been since 2015, so some may argue the tide is turning, but the overall trends tell us that it’s 90% chance over this period that the jolly hasn’t won.

At this stage, Juan Les Pins, Orazio and My Wagyu are desputing the favourites berth.