Backing the Browns offense; and a ‘crazy’ bet on Chargers vs. Bills: Tyler Shoemaker’s ‘Betting the Browns’

CLEVELAND, Ohio - This week’s top five in my T Shoe Index is the same as last week: 49ers, Ravens, Cowboys, Bills, Dolphins.

Notably, the top two teams in San Francisco and Baltimore will play each other this week in a massive showdown of what could be a Super Bowl preview. It’s also notable that a lot of other models similar to the T Shoe Index have Buffalo all the way up at No. 2. My numbers aren’t quite there with them, but they’re definitely a team coming on at the right time.

Again, a lot of familiar faces at the bottom with the Cardinals, Patriots, Panthers, Giants and Commanders – who are in last by almost a full rating point, which is the same gap from No. 31 to No. 28. The Giants were abysmal last week and dropped, so I’m curious to see if they can catch the Commanders, who have the mother of all ugly games against the Jets this week.

As for the Browns vs. the Texans, I project the Texans as a one-point favorite here, but that’s with a healthy CJ Stroud, so I understand why the line has been pushed to the Browns as field goal favorites here.

I also project the total to be a little higher than oddsmakers, with a projected total of 44 points compared to the current over/under of 40. Again, that’s certainly attributable to the presumed Stroud absence for Houston.

The Browns are No. 10 overall in my ratings, with the No. 13 offensive rating and the No. 10 defensive rating. Houston is No. 18 overall, with the No. 18 offensive rating and the No. 22 defensive rating.

As of Thursday, there were very limited options in terms of prop bets and player projections out. That being said, I’m going to go back to a bet we’ve cashed multiple times this season, which is the Browns first half team total over 9.5.

I think we’ve gone to these first-half overs three times this season and cashed them all, so let’s keep that momentum rolling in a good matchup for the Browns’ offense and the likelihood that an opportunistic defense can create some havoc on a backup QB.

Another bet that I like is one we played last week and cashed in the final seconds, which is the Browns being the team first to 20 points. As I mentioned, I project a higher total here than oddsmakers, and I think it’s possible this cashes before the fourth quarter.

Between the Browns’ defense making life hard for Case Keenum and getting the ball back for the offense, and a Texans defense outside the top 20, I like the Browns to put up some points in this game.

This is as ugly as it gets, and some people are going to think I’m crazy, but… I’m going to take the LA Chargers plus 12.5 against the Buffalo Bills.

The Chargers got crushed by the lowly Raiders last week, and the Bills have been awesome, as I mentioned. The Chargers are also without QB Justin Herbert and virtually the whole coaching staff.

To 99% of people, that screams a Bills bet, right? Not to people that have been doing this for a long time and know that these vomit-worthy plays are the ones that have a tendency to cash. Even accounting for the Herbert injury, the most I could project in this game is Bills -7.5, so we’re getting a very inflated number.

Hold your nose and take the points with the Chargers.

Wrapping up my bets for this week:

• Browns first half team total over 9.5
• Browns first to 20 points
• Chargers +12.5

Browns bets: 17-11-1

Best bets: 6-8-1

Tyler Shoemaker started betting on sports in 2017, trying hit 10-team parlays every college football Saturday. His hobby quickly turned into a competitive obsession once he learned some betting fundamentals – including the unlikelihood of ever hitting a 10-team parlay.

The idea of his T Shoe Index (TSI) was planted. Tyler has a bachelor’s and a master’s degree, neither of which is in anything stats or data-related, so he started with a pen and notebook and math. In 2018, those notebooks eventually turned into spreadsheets that he manually populated, which led to his first opportunity to become the unofficial sports betting expert of cleveland.com’s “Buckeye Talk” podcast..

Last season, he cashed 60% (24-16) of his best bets. He hit on 80% (8-2) of his Ohio State bets and was profitable 38% (5-8) on his touchdown-or-more money line upset picks.

This season, he will share his insights in a weekly post, “Betting the Browns.”

If you or a loved one has questions and needs to talk to a professional about gambling, call the Ohio Problem Gambling Helpline at 1-800-589-9966 or the National Council on Program Gambling Helpline (NCPG) at 1-800-522-4700 or visit 1800gambler.net