Putting some money on an undervalued Browns player vs. the Texans: Tyler Shoemaker’s ‘Betting the Browns’

CLEVELAND, Ohio - Welcome to the NFL playoffs. I basically viewed Week 18 the same way I do college football bowl season: I threw out the results as far as my ratings are concerned. So, the Ravens finished the regular season on top of my T Shoe Index, followed by the 49ers, Cowboys, Bills and Dolphins.

At the bottom, the Patriots are at No. 28, followed by the Cardinals, Giants, Panthers and Commanders. I wonder what the over/under is on coaches returning to these teams next year? 1.5?

I’m really excited for this Browns vs. Texans wild card game. I project Cleveland minus-0.5, so basically a pick ‘em. That tells me this game is going to be must-see TV with rookie QB CJ Stroud hosting his first playoff game against these adversity-destroying Browns, with Cleveland being 2.5 point road favorites on most sportsbooks.

I project the total at 45 points, which is right where the oddsmakers have it (44.5).

We finally have some decent prop bets this week, which is something we haven’t really had for a Browns game in several weeks, it feels like.

But first, I’m going to take the Browns on the money line at -142, as I think they’re the more complete team and should get the job done. Cleveland finished the season No. 8 in my TSI, while the Texans were No. 16, so although I don’t really want to lay 2.5 points in a season where we’ve seen several one- and two-point wins, I do think the Browns win the game.

Now, for the props. I think Kareem Hunt is being very undervalued by oddsmakers here, so I’m going to bet Kareem Hunt over 23.5 rushing yards and Kareem Hunt anytime touchdown at +150 odds.

There are a couple I like in this Wild Card weekend; I like the Steelers plus-10 against the Bills. That total is sitting at 35.5, so the fact this is a double-digit spread is bizarre to me. I project the game Bills minus-8, and 10 is a key number in betting, particularly in the NFL, so I like getting double digits with Mike Tomlin and the Steelers.

My favorite bet this week is ugly, as these bets tend to be. I like the Tampa Bay Buccaneers plus-3 against the Philadelphia Eagles. I actually project Tampa Bay as a two-point favorite, and I think the entire world will view the Eagles minus-3 as “free money”, which rarely ends well.

So, my bets for this week:

• Browns Moneyline -142
• Kareem Hunt Over 23.5 Rushing Yards -105
• Kareem Hunt Anytime Touchdown +150
• Steelers plus-10
• Buccaneers plus-3

Browns bets: 21-13-1

NFL Best Bets: 10-9-1

Tyler Shoemaker started betting on sports in 2017, trying hit 10-team parlays every college football Saturday. His hobby quickly turned into a competitive obsession once he learned some betting fundamentals – including the unlikelihood of ever hitting a 10-team parlay.

The idea of his T Shoe Index (TSI) was planted. Tyler has a bachelor’s and a master’s degree, neither of which is in anything stats or data-related, so he started with a pen and notebook and math. In 2018, those notebooks eventually turned into spreadsheets that he manually populated, which led to his first opportunity to become the unofficial sports betting expert of cleveland.com’s “Buckeye Talk” podcast..

Last season, he cashed 60% (24-16) of his best bets. He hit on 80% (8-2) of his Ohio State bets and was profitable 38% (5-8) on his touchdown-or-more money line upset picks.

This season, he will share his insights in a weekly post, “Betting the Browns.”

If you or a loved one has questions and needs to talk to a professional about gambling, call the Ohio Problem Gambling Helpline at 1-800-589-9966 or the National Council on Program Gambling Helpline (NCPG) at 1-800-522-4700 or visit 1800gambler.net