Time to put some faith in Joe Flacco and the Browns offense vs. the Bears: Tyler Shoemaker’s ‘Betting the Browns’

CLEVELAND, Ohio - For this week, my top five power-rated teams this week are the 49ers – who maintain their separation at the top – followed by the Cowboys jumping to No. 2 after beating down the Eagles, then the Ravens, Bills and Chiefs.

The Browns are up to No. 9, sneaking back into the TShoe Index top 10 this week.

This week, the Browns are No. 10 on offense and No. 11 on defense, matching up with the No. 26 overall team in the TSI – Chicago. The Bears are up to No. 20 on offense and No. 26 on defense after spending much of the season in the bottom five.

I project the Browns as 7-point favorites in this game, even though the line on Friday was Browns minus-3. And I also project this total significantly higher (45) than the current over/under of 38.5.

We’ve now seen oddsmakers continue to undervalue the Browns’ offensive potential despite them having some pretty high-scoring games – they almost covered the O/U themselves last week against the Jaguars.

We were unable to cash our NFL best bet of the week last week with the Bears holding the Lions to just 13 poi.nts.

But the Browns came through for us in all facets for a profitable week. This week, I like Joe Flacco to go over his passing touchdowns prop of 1.5 at +140 odds.

I also like the Browns to be the first team to 20 points at +110 odds; and the Browns -0.5 in the first quarter at +120 odds.

League-wide, my favorite bet this week is — reluctantly — backing the New England Patriots plus the points against the defending champion Kansas City Chiefs. This line has bounced around this week but I like the Patriots +7.5 or better.

Summarizing my bets:

• Flacco Over 1.5 passing TD (+140)
• Browns first to 20 points +110
• Browns Minus-0.5 in the first quarter +120
• Patriots +7.5 or better

Browns bets: 15-10-1

Best bets: 6-7-1

Tyler Shoemaker started betting on sports in 2017, trying hit 10-team parlays every college football Saturday. His hobby quickly turned into a competitive obsession once he learned some betting fundamentals – including the unlikelihood of ever hitting a 10-team parlay.

The idea of his T Shoe Index (TSI) was planted. Tyler has a bachelor’s and a master’s degree, neither of which is in anything stats or data-related, so he started with a pen and notebook and math. In 2018, those notebooks eventually turned into spreadsheets that he manually populated, which led to his first opportunity to become the unofficial sports betting expert of cleveland.com’s “Buckeye Talk” podcast..

Last season, he cashed 60% (24-16) of his best bets. He hit on 80% (8-2) of his Ohio State bets and was profitable 38% (5-8) on his touchdown-or-more money line upset picks.

This season, he will share his insights in a weekly post, “Betting the Browns.”

If you or a loved one has questions and needs to talk to a professional about gambling, call the Ohio Problem Gambling Helpline at 1-800-589-9966 or the National Council on Program Gambling Helpline (NCPG) at 1-800-522-4700 or visit 1800gambler.net