Baptist Health 200 Predictions, Odds & Picks
After a three-week break, the NASCAR Truck Series returns to action this week with the final Round of 8 race of the playoffs, Saturday’s Baptist Health Cancer Care 200 at Homestead-Miami Speedway (12:00 pm ET, FS1).
Last year, Ty Majeski was the man of the moment at Homestead, as he claimed his second win of the Round of 8.
When he arrived at Homestead last year, he was locked into the Championship 4. This year, however, it’s a much different story.
After finishing 19th and 21st in the first two Round of 8 races, Majeski is 19 points out of fourth and may need to win to be a part of the Championship 4 for the second straight season.
NASCAR Truck Series Points Standings (Prior to the Baptist Health 200)
- Corey Heim – 3121
- Carson Hocevar – 3111
- Christian Eckes – 3097
- Nick Sanchez – 3091
- Grant Enfinger – 3088
- Ben Rhodes – 3086
- Ty Majeski – 3072
- Zane Smith – 3055
With a win in the Round of 8 opener at Bristol last month, Heim, the regular season champion, is already locked in. But three other spots are up for grabs, and Majeski, Enfinger, and the last two Truck Series champions, Ben Rhodes and Zane Smith, will be attempting to send Hocevar, Eckes, or Sanchez home disappointed.
Odds to Win the 2023 Baptist Health 200
Odds are via Bovada.
- Ty Majeski +300
- Corey Heim +325
- Zane Smith +500
- Carson Hocevar +600
- Christian Eckes +850
- Grant Enfinger +1100
- Nick Sanchez +1600
- Ben Rhodes +1800
- Taylor Gray +2500
- Stewart Friesen +3000
- Rajah Carruth +3500
- Trevor Bayne +3500
- Chase Purdy +4000
- Jake Garcia +4000
- Matt Crafton +5000
Baptist Health 200 Predictions and Picks
In addition to the race for places in the Championship 4, one thing that many viewers will be eager to see is if there will be any on-track drama between Nick Sanchez and Matt Crafton after the on and off-track issues that occurred between the two drivers last time out at Talladega.
During the race, the two made contact to trigger a big crash, and after the race, the 47-year-old Crafton made a physical expression of his displeasure with the 22-year-old rookie (colorful language warning for the below clip).
Given the stakes involved for Sanchez, his focus is sure to be on trying to make sure his impressive rookie season in the Truck Series ends with a shot at a championship.
Of the drivers in the Round of 8, Sanchez is the only one who doesn’t have a win this season. That, along with where he is positioned, makes him the driver most under threat entering the Baptist Health 200.
In the current format, there have been only two instances in which a driver reached the Championship 4 without winning a race.
Both instances were by the same driver, as Crafton won the title in 2019 without a single win and was in the mix to do so again in 2021 but finished nine spots and nine points behind Rhodes at Phoenix.
Year by Year NASCAR Truck Series Championship 4 Participants
- 2022: Ty Majeski, Ben Rhodes, Chandler Smith, Zane Smith (champion)
- 2021: Matt Crafton, John Hunter Nemechek, Ben Rhodes (champion), Zane Smith
- 2020: Sheldon Creed (champion), Grant Enfinger, Brett Moffitt, Zane Smith
- 2019: Ross Chastain, Matt Crafton (champion), Brett Moffitt, Stewart Friesen
- 2018: Noah Gragson, Justin Haley, Brett Moffitt (champion), Johnny Sauter
- 2017: Christopher Bell (champion), Austin Cindric, Matt Crafton, Johnny Sauter
Sanchez has finished in the top ten 11 times this season, including each of the last three races. But with Enfinger and Rhodes not far behind and valuable stage points to factor in, Sanchez may need a top-five finish in the Baptist Health 200, which he has achieved only twice.
One driver who has made a habit of finishing in the top five is Eckes.
He was on course to make it five for five with top-five finishes in the playoffs, but he faded from a favorable position at the end at Talladega to finish 19th.
Twice in his Truck Series career (2020 and 2022), Eckes has missed out on the Championship 4 after reaching the Round of 8.
However, the third time should be the charm barring some misfortune, and I’m backing him to not only avoid said misfortune, but to finish in the top five (+120 at Bovada) for the tenth time this season.
In last year’s Baptist Health 200, Rhodes locked up his spot in the Championship 4 with a sixth-place finish. A second-place finish at Talladega has him positioned to potentially be able to land there for a third year in a row, depending on what happens around him.
However, he has recorded back-to-back top-five finishes only once this season, and I’m hesitant to back him here.
Recent Baptist Health 200 Race Winners
- 2022: Ty Majeski
- 2021: not held
- 2020: Kyle Busch
- 2019: Austin Hill
- 2018: Brett Moffitt
- 2017: Chase Briscoe
- 2016: William Byron
- 2015: Matt Crafton
- 2014: Bubba Wallace
- 2013: Kyle Busch
Zane Smith finished second behind Majeski in last year’s Baptist Health 200 before going on to win the title at Phoenix, but after finishing 24th and 32nd in the first two Round of 8 races, he needs to win to get a chance to defend his title.
With what he needs to do in mind, I like Smith to be somewhere near the front, even if he isn’t able to pull out the win. At Bovada, he is -120 to finish in the top five.
Will Majeski be able to win his way in? After finishing first and seventh in the first two playoff races, he has finished 18th, 19th, and 21st in the last three.
But I’m backing him to get the job done with his back against the wall at Homestead and become the first driver to repeat as winner of the Baptist Health 200.
Where to Bet on NASCAR
Many of the top sports betting sites offer a variety of NASCAR betting odds. Throughout the season, you can bet on races like the Daytona 500, Coca-Cola 600, and others.
Along with being able to bet on the winner of each Cup Series, Xfinity Series, and/or Truck Series race, sportsbooks like Bovada offer finishing position odds (top 3, top 5, and/or top 10).
Also, odds on who will finish at the top of the championship standings are available at many reputable sportsbooks.
In addition to Bovada, here are some of the sites that we recommend if you are interested in NASCAR betting:
If you don’t have an account at a book on this list, check out our reviews to help you determine if it is worth your interest and your betting funds.
