Bellator 297 Sergio Pettis vs Patricio Freire Picks and Predictions:

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08 July 2023

Bellator 297 Sergio Pettis vs Patricio Freire Picks and Predictions:

Patricio Freire is moving down in weight at age 35, never an easy task. But our Bellator betting picks believe Sergio Pettis could be the one struggling with conditioning off a long layoff on Friday night.

Patricio “Pitbull” Freire is attempting to become a three-division MMA champion, with his eyes on the bantamweight title currently held by the formidable Sergio Pettis. These two champions collide in the co-main event of Bellator 297 this Friday, June 16, from the Wintrust Arena in Chicago.

MMA odds favor Freire to make history as a -190 favorite. Defending champion Pettis is a +160 underdog. While this may be the legend’s night, the intangibles might tilt the favor toward the champ.

Freire is chasing history, but Pettis might put an end to his conquests with his heavy hands. Here are my best free Sergio Pettis vs Patricio Freire picks and predictions for Bellator 297 on Friday, June 16.

Sergio Pettis vs Patricio Freire odds

Sergio Pettis vs Patricio Freire picks

Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.

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Sergio Pettis vs Patricio Freire betting preview

The 35-year-old Freire has to be commended for the gargantuan task put before him. Fighters at this post-prime phase of their careers usually move up in weight, not down. As a former featherweight and lightweight champion, “Pitbull’s” athleticism and ring IQ has kept him at the top of the Bellator mountain for many years. Last December, Freire shut down Kleber Koike Erbst at the Bellator vs. Rizin FF event.

Considering his 5-foot-6 frame and general build, Freire has a typical build for a bantamweight. His fast strikes and excellent ground game have made him a terror, though he works behind his Muay Thai more than his grappling. The active Freire still looks like a force, nimbly moving across the cage and expertly picking his shots as the opportunities arise.

While Pettis is a problem, an added hurdle will be the weight. This will be the lowest weight Freire has ever competed at, and he’s no spring chicken. Should Freire sweat down to the bantamweight limit, and it doesn’t compromise his conditioning and movement, he’ll have a tremendous size advantage and boost to his striking power.

If Freire has to battle the scales, then Pettis has to deal with ring rust. We haven’t seen the champion in action since December 2021, knocking out Kyoji Horiguchi while behind on all the scorecards. The Horiguchi fight emphasized his weaknesses, but also his improved composure after an uneven run in the UFC before coming to Bellator.

Pettis’ patience is boosted by his excellent striking power. He’s careful in picking his spots and has the situational awareness to know when to attack and defend. Like Freire, he’s a technically proficient kickboxer who has a strong jab and devastating head kicks.

That said, Pettis might be too passive at times. In the past, he’s been careless on the ground and often rushes to stand back up, which isn’t wise against Freire. Though he should have a natural advantage as being more acclimated to the division, 18 months is a long time for anyone to be out of competition.

Covers MMA Betting Analysis

Sergio Pettis vs Patricio Freire tale of the tape

Sergio Pettis vs Patricio Freire prediction and best bet

Our prediction is compiled from the analysis of the fighters and is an indication of who we are leaning with to win this bout.
Our best bet is the play that we like the most for this fight or where the most value lies, and is where we would put some of our bankroll behind.

Prediction: Freire Moneyline

After seeing Pettis snatch victory from the hands of a lopsided defeat, then be off for this long, I’m going with Freire. His offense is sharper, and he will have a tremendous advantage if he succeeds in getting Pettis on the ground. The weight is a concern, hence the odds, but Freire is the better fighter who should be able to run through a rusty Pettis.

Pick: Freire Moneyline (-190 at DraftKings)