Ben Coley's golf betting tips: DP World Tour Championship preview and best bets

Golf betting tips: DP World Tour Championship

3pts e.w. Min Woo Lee at 20/1 (Paddy Power, Betfair 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6)

2pts e.w. Adrian Meronk at 33/1 (Sky Bet 1/5 1,2,3,4,5)

1pt e.w. Vincent Norrman at 50/1 (BetVictor, Betfred 1/4 1,2,3,4,5)

Sunday brought confirmation that Rory McIlroy is this year's Race to Dubai champion, simultaneously rewarding the player who has performed best in DP World Tour events this season, while exposing some niggles with the system as it is.

Personally, I'm not at all concerned by the fact that the crown can be placed atop anyone's head before the season finishes. Sometimes, someone is deserving of that and having won two Rolex Series events and played so well in three of the four majors, McIlroy fits that description.

The greater issue for me is where the Race to Dubai really ranks in the priorities of players like McIlroy and Jon Rahm, who both decided not to play for big points in South Africa. For Rahm, skipping the Nedbank equated to giving up any hope of winning the Harry Vardon trophy for just a second time, which already feels like too low a number for a player of his talents.

How do you solve it? Perhaps by holding successive events in the Middle East to finish the season, which is exactly what will happen next year. Both of them are set to offer enormous purses, first in Abu Dhabi and then in Dubai, so while many have expressed frustration at how 2023 has panned out (and some of them have done so while wilfully ignoring changes that have been made), 2024 should serve up a more fitting climax.

For now we do still have a DP World Tour Championship to play for, and the lack of Race to Dubai incentive hasn't made a bit of difference to the field. All 50 qualifiers are here, 10 of them representing the European Ryder Cup side, and three of them arguably the best trio of male golfers it's possible to find right now: McIlroy, Rahm, and Viktor Hovland.

There's also the rather large matter of PGA Tour membership, which will be awarded to the top 10 players on the Race to Dubai at the conclusion of this tournament who are not already exempt. I wonder if this only further tips the scales in favour of the better players, because for youngsters like Rasmus Hojgaard, Ryo Hisatsune and Yannik Paul, playing for a life-changing status upgrade is a big weight to carry.

Hojgaard currently occupies the final spot but if you're in any doubt about what's at stake, note that at least half a dozen players could pass him with as little as a top 10 if he finishes last. Perhaps a better way to demonstrate the volatility at hand is this: every non-exempt player in this field, right down to 50th-ranked Dan Brown, would earn a PGA Tour card if they can somehow win this prestigious title.

I'll be seriously impressed if any one of them can do that, particularly given the fact that Rahm, McIlroy and Matt Fitzpatrick have won here seven times between them. With Tyrrell Hatton and Tommy Fleetwood equally comfortable at the Earth Course, a modern par 72 built for strong drivers, this just isn't a week for throwing darts.

Preference among the favourites is for Rahm, narrowly, over McIlroy. The latter was in sparkling form at the course on Monday and is at his best when freewheeling so demands respect, but since Rahm came to Jumeirah Golf Estates it's been his territory. His scoring average since a debut win is fully a stroke lower than McIlroy's and, in four appearances, just three players in total have finished ahead of him.

At 11/2 he's perhaps a shade bigger than I'd expected and should head the betting, but all of the market leaders run the risk of being underdone and while that didn't stop Max Homa last week, it's not what I'd consider ideal.

Let's cook...

As such, I'll take them on with MIN WOO LEE, already a Rolex Series winner and a player who has come a heck of a long way in the subsequent two years.

Lee has cracked the top 50 again thanks to several top-class displays in 2023, starting with second place in the desert. From there he's established himself on the PGA Tour where he'll enjoy full status as of January, contending in The PLAYERS and then going on to finish fifth in the US Open, also playing nicely for 18th in the US PGA.

Just about as long as they come off the tee and with exquisite touch around the greens, the Australian only needs to dial in his wedge game to become a genuinely world-class player and while still inconsistent, in general that department has continued to improve as he tries to keep pace with his sister, Minjee, arguably the best ball-striker in women's golf.

Min Woo can take the next step up in his own career at the Earth Course, where he's been 16th and 12th in two starts so far – despite little help from his usually reliable putter. On debut he topped the par-five stats and ranked second in strokes-gained tee-to-green, a formula which should've seen him contending behind Collin Morikawa, and then last year he again ranked higher in the tee-to-green stats than his eventual finishing position.

Now back as an established star, whose social media smarts and trademark stinger have already endeared him to so many, Lee is also in red-hot form. His victory in Macau might not have been in the deepest of fields but he was 10 shots clear of third place, before a closing 65 for sixth in the ZOZO, played at a course which is far less suitable than this one.

His form in the UAE over the past two years reads 4-16-35-12-2-13, he's bullied the scoring holes here at the Earth Course, and he's one of a handful of players I could see going toe-to-toe with McIlroy and Rahm and coming out on top. At 16/1 and upwards he's well worth each-way support as I expect him to produce his best finish yet in this event.

From a purely value perspective I strongly considered Shane Lowry next, despite the fact that he too returns to action following a prolonged post-Ryder Cup break.

The last time these players gathered for a DP World Tour event was at Wentworth, when Lowry was a shade bigger than the likes of Fleetwood, Fitzpatrick and Hatton at around the 18/1 mark. While those players are all the same price or shorter for this, Lowry has almost doubled to 33/1, despite being a former runner-up at the course.

Perhaps he was a bit short for Wentworth and is a little bit big for this, but I can't say I like much else about his chances despite a win over in Abu Dhabi and will instead favour ADRIAN MERONK, who can cap his ascent to the PGA Tour in style.

While some felt Lowry kept Meronk out of the Ryder Cup side the truth is that Nicolai Hojgaard and Ludvig Aberg did, and we can all do without going over that debate again. Ultimately, these are three enormously talented players and Luke Donald had to omit one of them.

Meronk though has certainly felt a sense of injustice, understandably so, and it fuelled a fourth win in little more than a year after a dazzling finish in Spain. Granted, he did make everything that week, but in general his long-game has remained solid and that was the case in the Nedbank Challenge where one bad round kept him out of the places.

The Earth Course definitely suits him better. Meronk, a Dubai resident during winter, has practised here a lot and knows what damage his imperious driving can do, which we saw when he carded a closing 66 on debut and returned to go one better with a third-round 65 last year.

Meronk had been out of form at the time, nowhere near the levels he's reached subsequently, yet ranked third in strokes-gained approach in a performance which served as a springboard to his subsequent coming of age in the Australian Open.

Back now having added titles in Italy and Spain to go with those he'd already won in Ireland and Australia, he should be able to improve on what he's done here off the tee and while his short-game hasn't been particularly good of late, these huge greens should prove something of a leveller.

Beating elite players is the next step for Meronk, his victims so far having been just a level below that, but with the Race to Dubai now out of reach and his PGA Tour card guaranteed, he might just feel like a weight is off his shoulders.

Without it he looks a threat to the favourites and he's generally held his own when playing alongside the game's elite.

Norrman looks a good price

Matt Wallace is a former runner-up here, one of those three players to have finished ahead of Rahm in fact, and merits respect having reminded us all of his abilities under the gun with that victory on the PGA Tour back in March and kept to a good level of form since then.

There's a similar case to be made for Alex Bjork, a brilliant iron player whose putter went cold last week, but he's limited off the tee and preference is for his compatriot VINCENT NORRMAN.

While he fell over the line to win the Barbasol Championship before stealing the Irish Open with a late surge on a strange final day, Norrman has ultimately won twice in 10 starts since striking form this summer and has no real pressure on him here.

Prodigious off the tee, his driving was excellent on his Sun City debut last week, as it has been almost every time he's played since July, and that club should open up all kinds of opportunities at a big, far more straightforward golf course which features four par-fives and a driveable par-four.

Norrman followed his K Club win with a good top-20 finish at Wentworth, a course which often removes driver from the equation, and it's not difficult to excuse a missed cut at the Shriners following a month off which had been overdue.

Solid enough under less-than-ideal conditions in Japan, he stepped forward at the Nedbank where experience generally pays and while he lacks it in the Middle East, this kind of golf is far more familiar. As with Meronk and Lee, his status for 2023 is secure and he's the kind of powerhouse who could go seriously low at the Earth Course if the rest of his game improves ever so slightly from last week's encouraging display.

It's also worth saying that Norrman will be eager to justify his decision to focus on the DP World Tour, as while he has his PGA Tour card, he's 80th in the FedEx Cup and could've elected to prioritise qualifying for some big-money events in 2024.

Winning this could see him jump as high as second on the Race to Dubai and he might just be up to it. Certainly, if we're to get the favourites beaten then I expect it'll be with someone who can match the likes of Rahm and McIlroy off the tee, a category this trio all fall into.

Posted at 1800 GMT on 13/11/23

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