Best Bets, Expert Predictions, 2023 Week 0
The long wait is finally over! We have actual live college football on our TV this weekend. The last great college football season begins here! I will be here with you all season with betting picks, DFS, picks, ESPN College Pick Em picks, and my top 25. I'm going to enjoy the greatness while it lasts!
I will pick every college football bowl game. Not a top five. Not a top 10. All of them. Big deal, right? Lots of people make picks. Well, I do them all against the spread. I take the odds of each game and average them out at all the Vegas casinos and round to the nearest half. There will be no ties here. Ties are for the other (European) football.
I also assign a point value based on the confidence I have in each pick. So a score of 1 means that I have little to no confidence, and a score of 5 is one I would place a decent wager on. I keep track of my record and my points from year to year. Here are last year's results. It was a trying season. My worst on record. I lost 201 betting points and need 111 just to get back to zero this season.
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CFB Betting Picks Overview
As we all know, this is not an exact science. Due to the volatile nature of betting in general, this is for entertainment purposes only. I cannot be responsible for the loss of money, possessions, spouses, or limbs because of my picks. I am a simple man. I can't have that on my conscience.
I will be going to the betting window with all of you as well. Most of these I won't actually wager on at the casinos, but I have been known to stagger around 50 games in a week at various online places just because I love the action. Whatever your betting limits or needs, I can at least give you which way I'm leaning.
CFB Betting Picks for 2023 Week 0 (August 26)
Navy vs. (13)Notre Dame(-20.5) at Dublin, Ireland
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
This feels high to me. The Irish are breaking in a new quarterback in Sam Hartman and the Navy defense wasn't the problem last season. Strange things happen in Ireland. Northwestern won their only game of the 2022 season there last year. I think Navy keeps this fairly close. I'll take the Middies.
UTEP(-1.5) at Jacksonville State
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Remember the Gamecocks? They knocked off Florida State in Tallahassee just two years ago. Yes, the Noles had Jordan Travis in that game. He isn't nearly the player that he is now, but this one feels dangerous to me. Burgess-Snow Field in Jacksonville, Alabama is going to be rocking for their first game as an FBS school. Give me the Gamecocks outright.
Massachusetts at New Mexico State(-6.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
This line has dropped a touch, likely because former Clemson and Georgia Tech backup Taisun Phommachanh won the starting job for the Minutemen. This was a 10-point game in Massachusetts last year in Diego Pavia's first start. The UMass defense got better down the stretch last season and looks at least a little better on paper here, but going to Las Cruces, where it will be hotter than the devil's butthole, is going to be tough. Give me the Aggies.
Ohio at San Diego State(-2.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
I was expecting a bigger spread here, but this is fair. Ohio's defense was one of the best in the MAC and they returned nearly all of their skill players on offense. The Aztecs were a different team with Jalen Mayden at quarterback. However, the Aztecs only have one back that received meaningful carries last year. That could be a chore for a team that likes to run. I like Ohio, but it's asking too much to go to San Diego and win outright. I'll take the Aztecs.
Hawaii at Vanderbilt(-17.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
This feels a bit high. Brayden Schager is back at the helm for Hawaii. Vanderbilt is using a running back by committee between three backs to start the season, but talented quarterback AJ Swann is under center for the Commodores, and veteran Will Sheppard stabilizes the receiving corps. I do think Vandy manages to pull away here. The Commodores hung 63 on Hawaii to put the SEC on notice in the opener last year.
San Jose State at (6)USC(-30.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
With this line, you would think that San Jose State is devoid of talent. That couldn't be further from the truth. They return all five skill starters on offense from last season. Is USC capable of blowing them out? Of course. They might have the most talent of anyone. Will they? I have my doubts. Give me San Jose. They won't win, but more than four touchdowns feels like a lot.
Florida International at Louisiana Tech(-10.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
This line is all over the place, so shop around for whatever you like. I haven't seen it under 10, but if you're planning on taking the Panthers, I've seen sites giving as many as 12 points for you to do so with little juice on it. I won't be taking the Panthers. This defense was a special kind of bad last season and Hank Bachmeier makes the passing game for the Bulldogs dangerous again.
I have 18 points riding on the seven games this week. This is just the beginning, and I hope you stick around for the fun ride this season!
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