Best bets for The Sentry

The Sentry

The 2024 PGA TOUR season gets underway this week as the TOUR returns to a calendar year season for the first time since 2013. The Sentry used to be a tournament solely reserved for PGA TOUR winners, but this year 59 players will take part in this upgraded Signature event. PGA TOUR winners, Tour Championship qualifiers, and players who finished in the Top 50 in the final 2022-23 FedExCup standings are part of this field. 

One player who will not be taking part this week is Sentry defending champion and World No. 3 Jon Rahm, who defected to LIV Golf this past December. World No. 2 Rory McIlroy will also not be in Kapalua as he will begin his season, as he usually does, in Dubai next week. 

Nevertheless, an elite field of players is at Kapalua this week, led by World No. 1 Scottie Scheffler (6/1), who won the Hero World Challenge five weeks ago. World No. 4 Viktor Hovland (+850) and No. 5 Patrick Cantlay (16/1), twice a Top 4 finisher here, also sit near the top of the field. 

Collin Morikawa (14/1), who led by six strokes and by seven at one point in the final round here last year before a back-nine collapse with three consecutive bogeys, returns to Maui in an event that has special meaning, not just for him. This year’s tournament takes on added significance because of the devasting Maui wildfires that killed 97 people earlier in the year in Lahaina, which is just 13 miles away from Kapalua. The fires also destroyed more than 2,000 structures. While the Kapalua Resort was not affected, over one-third of the staff that work at the resort lost their homes. Morikawa's grandparents owned a restaurant in Maui back in the 1950s and 1960s. 

Ludvig Åberg (14/1) won the final official PGA TOUR event of 2023 at the RSM Classic, and no player in the world has been hotter over the last few months. Max Homa (16/1), currently ranked No. 7, reached his career-high ranking of 6th last season and is a recent winner, having won the Nedbank Golf Challenge in South Africa back in November and finished 3rd here last year.

Xander Schauffele (16/1) and Jordan Spieth (25/1) are both recent former champions here, having won in 2019 and 2016, respectively. 

Tom Kim (25/1) was 5th on debut here last year, and Matt Fitzpatrick (30/1) was 7th on his debut here also last year. 

Aside from Åberg, several other players are making first-time appearances at Kapalua, including Tommy Fleetwood (30/1), Tyrrell Hatton (30/1), and U.S. Open champion Wyndham Clark (50/1). 

The Event

The Sentry has been played at Kapalua Resort in Maui since 1999. The event was established in 1953 when it was hosted at the Desert Inn Country Club, now the site of the Wynn Las Vegas property. It moved to the Stardust Country Club (now Las Vegas National Golf Club, before spending the next thirty years at La Costa Resort in Carlsbad, CA. The list of event winners is a who’s who of golfing legends and icons including Jack Nicklaus (1963, 1964, 1971, 1973, 1977), Arnold Palmer (1962, 1965, 1966), Tom Watson (1979, 1980, 1984), Gary Player (1969, 1978), Phil Mickelson (1994, 1998) and Tiger Woods (1997, 2000). In all, fifteen players have been multiple event winners since the inception. Four players have won multiple times at Kapalua: Stuart Appleby (2004, 2005, 2006), Geoff Ogilvy (2009, 2010), Dustin Johnson (2013, 2018) and Justin Thomas (2017, 2020). 

The Sentry dropped the Tournament of Champions name with the inclusion of non-event winners in the field. 

The Field

21 of the top 25, and 38 of the top 50 golfers in the Official World Golf Rankings are in the field this week. There are 59 total players in this no-cut event. 

The Course

The Plantation Course at Kapalua Resort was designed in 1991 by the duo of Bill Coore and Ben Crenshaw, who also designed and renovated Pinehurst No. 2 and Trinity Forest. The course is laid out over an immense area of terrain on the lower slopes of the volcanic West Maui Mountains. It was constructed on an old pineapple plantation. The track only has three Par 3s and is a rare par 73 (36/37 split) that measures 7,596 yards, which is the 12th longest course on TOUR, but played as the easiest last year. 

There are 11 Par 4s on the course, and eight measure under 425 yards. No course on the PGA TOUR has more elevation changes than Kapalua, so players will be facing plenty of uneven lies and some blind shots into the pins, but the ball will carry more than usual. The Celebration Bermudagrass fairways are the second most wide and generous (over 50 yards wide) on the TOUR. The TifEagle Bermuda greens are the largest on TOUR (8,700 sq ft average) and slow (10.5 stimpmeter). 

There are 93 bunkers, 4th most on TOUR, but zero water holes on the layout. Coastal winds, elevation changes, and uneven lies are the course's main defenses. The wind did not blow two years ago, and 34-under was the winning score as a result. 

Kapalua, which means "arms embracing the sea," was last renovated in 2019 which included rebuilding all greens. New bunkers were added at No. 3, 5, 15, 16, and new tees were added on No. 3, 7, 9, 10 and 15.

Recent History/Winners

2023: Jon Rahm (-27/265); 7/1

2022: Cameron Smith (-34/258); 25/1

2021: Harris English (-25/267); 33/1**

2020: Justin Thomas (-14/278); 11/2**

2019: Xander Schauffele (-23/269); 22/1

2018: Dustin Johnson (-24/268); 15/2

2017: Justin Thomas (-22/270); 22/1

2016: Jordan Spieth (-30/262); 5/1

2015: Patrick Reed (-21/271); 22/1***

2014: Zach Johnson (-19/273); 14/1

2013: Dustin Johnson (-16/203); 14/1****

2012: Steve Stricker (-23/269); 17/2

2011: Jonathan Byrd (-24/268); 50/1

2010: Geoff Ogilvy (-22/270); 9/1

Playoff win over Joaquin Niemann - *

Playoff win over Patrick Reed & Xander Schauffele - **

Playoff win over Jimmy Walker - ***

Weather-shortened event to 54 holes - ****

Trends, Stats, and Angles

​Here are some winning trends for The Sentry:

· 12 of the last 14 winners were aged 33 or younger.

· 13 of the last 14 winners were ranked 29th or better in the OWGR.

· 13 of the last 14 winners had at least 3 career PGA Tour victories.

· 15 of the last 17 winners had previously won on the PGA Tour with a 19-under or lower score.

· 14 of the last 14 winners had played in at least one previous Tournament of Champions event.

· 10 of the last 14 winners had finished 11th or better in a previous Tournament of Champions event. 

· 13 of the last 15 winners had played in a competitive tournament in December prior to their victories.

· 11 of the last 13 winners were born in the United States.

· 10 of the last 12 winners finished 7th or better in the previous year's event.

· 6 of the last 8 winners finished 4th or better in the previous year's event.

Statistical Analysis 

15 of 18 holes have a Birdie or Better rate of 13% or higher, with eight holes at 25% or better. If the winds do not blow much, 30-under is always possible here at Kapalua.

Birdie Or Better Gained (Last 50 Rounds)

1. Eric Cole 54.7
2. Viktor Hovland 52.4
3. Scottie Scheffler 47.8
4. Xander Schauffele 46
5. Ludvig Åberg 44.7
6. Patrick Cantlay 38.7
7. Wyndham Clark 35.1
8. Tom Kim 34
9. Tyrrell Hatton 32.9
10. Collin Morikawa 32.4
11. Max Homa 32.4
12. Sahith Theegala 32.1
13. Luke List 31
14. Keegan Bradley 30.4
15. Justin Rose 28.1
16. Rickie Fowler 27.7

Many of the greens have undulations where the slope must be used to feed the ball towards the pin, so players have to be especially precise on approach.

Strokes Gained: Approach (Last 50 Rounds)

1. Scottie Scheffler 64.7
2. Collin Morikawa 47.5
3. Lucas Glover 46.5
4. Xander Schauffele 44.6
5. Russell Henley 41.9
6. Viktor Hovland 41.6
7. Eric Cole 38.5
8. Hideki Matsuyama 38
9. Adam Schenk 36.4
10. Rickie Fowler 35.1
11. Tony Finau 35
12. Patrick Cantlay 33.7
13. Corey Conners 32.9
14. Andrew Putnam 32.8
15. Justin Rose 30

Kapalua involves many short wedge shots (a 44% increase over a standard course on the PGA TOUR) from anywhere from 100 yards and in. 

Proximity Gained 75-100 Yards (Last 50 Rounds)

1. Max Homa 7.1
2. Hideki Matsuyama 7
3. Brendon Todd 6.8
4. JT Poston 6.7
5. Andrew Putnam 6.2
6. Corey Conners 5.8
7. Davis Riley 4.8
8. Nick Taylor 4.8
9. Chris Kirk 4.7
10. Collin Morikawa 4.6
11. Cam Davis 3.9
12. Sungjae Im 3.4
13. Luke List 3.3
14. Scottie Scheffler 3.3
15. Brian Harman 3.2
16. Adam Hadwin 3
17. Russell Henley 3

With the Par 5s plus two Par 4s of well over 500 yards, approach shots from the 200+ yard range will also see an even higher overall number at 31% compared to the TOUR average of 27%.

Proximity Gained 200+ Yards (Last 50 Rounds)

1. Scottie Scheffler 19.3
2. Eric Cole 15.8
3. Tony Finau 15.5
4. Tom Hoge 14.8
5. Luke List 14.4
6. Viktor Hovland 14.4
7. Collin Morikawa 13.4
8. Hideki Matsuyama 13.1
9. Cameron Young 12.9
10. Adam Schenk 12.8
11. Keegan Bradley 12
12. Si Woo Kim 12
13. Tom Kim 11.5
14. Taylor Moore 10.7
15. Lucas Glover 10

Since the fairways are so wide at Kapalua and the rough is not penal, Driving Accuracy does not matter much here, so players can grip it and rip it off the tee. In fact, average Driving Distance is nine yards longer here over the last five years than the PGA TOUR average at other events on the schedule.

Driving Distance Gained (Last 50 Rounds)

1. Byeong Hun An 17.3
2. Ludvig Åberg 14.6
3. Vincent Norrman 14.3
4. Cameron Young 14.1
5. Luke List 11
6. Scottie Scheffler 11
7. Nick Hardy 10.8
8. Wyndham Clark 10.3
9. Sam Burns 10.1
10. Davis Riley 9.9
11. Taylor Moore 9.8
12. Cam Davis 7.3
13. Patrick Rodgers 7

The average score on Par 5s at Kapalua over the last five years is 4.44 as compared to 4.65 for the PGA TOUR average over the last five years.

Par 5 Scoring (Last 50 Rounds)

1. Scottie Scheffler 25.5
2. Ludvig Åberg 25.2
3. Wyndham Clark 24.8
4. Patrick Cantlay 22.9
5. Jordan Spieth 22.6
6. Rickie Fowler 21.9
7. Cam Davis 21.1
8. Tom Kim 18.6
9. Collin Morikawa 17.6
10. Vincent Norrman 17
11. Justin Rose 16.4
12. Erik van Rooyen 16.4
13. Matt Fitzpatrick 15.6
14. Xander Schauffele 15.4
15. Mackenzie Hughes 14.8
16. Keegan Bradley 14.1

Despite the fact that Kapalua is a birdie-fest and ranked as the easiest course on the PGA TOUR last season, the Bermuda greens here are still a bit tricky despite the smoother TifEagle Bermudagrass being laid here in 2019. They run on the slower side at 10.5 on the stimpmeter and the wind has to be factored in as well.

Strokes Gained Bermuda Putting (Last 50 Rounds)

1. Andrew Putnam 42
2. Taylor Moore 34.1
3. Sam Burns 33.8
4. Tyrrell Hatton 28.5
5. Tommy Fleetwood 25.7
6. Brendon Todd 22.3
7. Adam Schenk 20.4
8. Max Homa 19.5
9. Matt Fitzpatrick 18.4
10. Wyndham Clark 17.5
11. Denny McCarthy 17.3
12. Xander Schauffele 17.1
13. Eric Cole 16
14. Justin Rose 15.8

Bogeys are a disaster here, as Collin Morikawa found out in the final round last year, where he carded three straight on the back nine and fell behind a surging Jon Rahm despite having a seven-shot lead at one point on Sunday. 

Bogey Avoidance (Last 50 Rounds)

1. Tommy Fleetwood 44.8
2. Hideki Matsuyama 43.7
3. Scottie Scheffler 40.9
4. Brian Harman 36.7
5. Sam Burns 33.4
6. Tyrrell Hatton 32.3
7. Russell Henley 32
8. Wyndham Clark 31.2
9. Xander Schauffele 30.8
10. Patrick Cantlay 30.3
11. Matt Fitzpatrick 30
12. Collin Morikawa 29.8
13. Byeong Hun An 29.8
14. Max Homa 29.2
15. Viktor Hovland 28.2

Selections

Collin Morikawa 12/1 DraftKings

Morikawa ended his near two-year winless drought this past October at the ZOZO Championship. 

The drought should have ended sooner than that right here at Kapalua last year, where Morikawa led by six strokes heading into the final round only to see Jon Rahm shoot 10-under and Morikawa make three bogeys on the back nine to finish runner-up.

He has a run of finishes of 7th (2020), 7th (2021), 5th (2022) and 2nd (2023) here in Maui.

This event should carry special significance for Morikawa this year, considering his family ties to Maui and this being the first event since the wildfires. 

Max Homa 14/1 Bet365

Homa plays his very best golf on the West Coast Swing. Four of his six wins have come in California at Silverado (2021 and 2022), Torrey Pines (2023) plus Riviera (2021). He was also 3rd here last year. 

He also comes in off a very good fall where he was one of the few bright spots for the losing U.S. Ryder Cup team being the low American point scorer and tying Viktor Hovland and Tyrrell Hatton for low overall point scorer. 

In addition, he won the Nedbank Golf Challenge in South Africa this past November. 

Tom Kim 25/1 DraftKings

Tom Kim finished 5th here last year. 

He stayed busy in the fall, playing a few DP World Tour events (T-18 at Wentworth, T-6 in Paris, T-15 at the DPWT Championship in Dubai) and defended his title at the Shriners in Las Vegas.

He will have a new caddie on the bag as Ludvig Åberg took Joe Skovron, who worked with Rickie Fowler for 13 years, from him. Kim now grabs Daniel Parratt from his fellow South Korean K.H. Lee's bag. Perhaps this lights a bit of a fire under Kim because he was the young upstart darling of the golf world in 2023, and now Åberg is in that role. 

Cam Davis 80/1 BetRivers

Davis is hoping to add his name to the list of Aussies that have won this event, like Stuart Appleby (three times), Geoff Ogilvy (twice), and Cameron Smith here two years ago. One reason for Aussie success here is that many of them play the Australian PGA and Australian Open events in late November and early December, so they are often immediately sharp and lack rust early on in the following calendar year. 

He has six Top 10s and a 12th in his last nine worldwide starts.

Davis was also 10th on debut here two years ago and was 9th in the 2020 Sony Open at Waialae, so he is comfortable on the islands. 

Matchups:

Tom Hoge +150 over Chris Kirk (South Point)

Xander Schauffele -135 over Ludvig Åberg (BetMGM)

Matchups and placement market bets will be posted on Wednesday on the VSiN Picks Page at VSiN.com/picks.