Best MLB prop bets today 8/20/2023

As we get deeper into August, the wildcard and divisional races tighten even more. In the National League, we see the Cubs and Brewers battling for the top spot in the NL Central. In the American League West, the two Texas teams are also fighting for the division. Each game seems to matter more.

With so much on the line, here are the best prop bets for key players today:

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Max Scherzer (12-4, 3.67 ERA) has been a huge addition to the Rangers. Now, with Mad Max, the team has the third-best World Series odds (+700). Today, Scherzer and the Rangers take on the Milwaukee Brewers. The Brewers are the sixth-most-walked team in the major leagues. They have 436 walks in 124 games. For reference, the Cubs, in third place, have 439 walks in 122 games. Those numbers mean the Brewers average 3.52 walks per game.

Now to the man throwing the ball. Scherzer has 35 walks in 127.2 innings pitched through 22 starts. Excluding his most recent start, Scherzer has had 2+ walks in every game dating back to June 24. In his last start he had one strikeout versus the Angels in a game the Rangers won 12-0.

In nearly 60% of Scherzer’s starts, he gives up 2+ walks. In both his outing versus Milwaukee this year, he gave up two walks. The first game was on April 4 and the next was on June 29.

Just in front of the Brewers are the Padres and Dodgers for batter walks. Season marks show Scherzer hits the over on 1.5 walks against disciplined teams like the Brewers. Versus San Diego, he’s given up three walks in each of his two starts. Against Los Angeles, he gave up two and then three walks in two outings.

Hunter Brown (9-8, 4.16 ERA) is a strikeout pitcher. Today, the Astro’s righty faces the Mariners who strike out more than 28 other ball clubs. Brown has 138 strikeouts in 125.1 innings. He averages 6.22 strikeouts per game he starts.

The Mariners have 1221 batter strikeouts in 123 games. They are the second most struck-out team in the league. The team’s numbers average out to 9.93 strikeouts per game. The last time Brown faced the Mariners was on July 7. Brown had eight strikeouts in just three innings pitched. That outing was not Brown’s best, letting up five earned in the three innings. Nonetheless, what matters is the strikeouts and Brown had those even in a poorer performance.

For reference, Brown is -208 to record 6+ strikeouts, so the sportsbook project that he should already get near that 6.5 line. The advantage comes from the fact that he is facing strikeout-heavy Seattle. At -105, this prop provides way better odds for just one more strikeout.

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Last week we successfully hit this same prop with Cody Bellinger and he matches up greatly today versus Jordan Lyles (3-13, 6.30 ERA) and the bottom-feeder Royals.

After winning NL Rookie of the Year and then having an MVP season in 2019, Bellinger regressed to one of the worst hitters in baseball. Now in Chicago, Bellinger has found himself again. He just won NL Player of the Month for July. Last month he had eight homers, 24 RBIs and batted .400.

On the season, he has 112 hits, 71 runs and 63 RBIs in his 91 games this season. Those numbers are good for a 2.70 Hits + Runs + RBIs average. Bellinger bats cleanup which puts him in prime position to hit the over on this prop. A hit with runners in scoring position can get Bellinger over in one at-bat. -140 is great odds with a 2.70 hits + runs + RBIs average and facing the mediocre Royals.

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