Best NFL Prop Bets for Week 16: Josh Allen, Christian McCaffrey, Justin Jefferson highlight our experts' picks

Unbelievably, we have reached Christmas weekend — which means we are right in the thick of the NFL playoff race. This makes for great value on the betting front (check out my best bets — we've been rolling!), and it also makes for solid opportunities on the player prop betting front. As we do each week, today our Sporting News betting experts will drop our 12 favorite SuperDraft props for the remaining Week 16 games.

Every Friday, my colleagues Vinnie Iyer, Nick Musial, Nick Brinkerhoff join me to scour SuperDraft and pinpoint the over/under props that we believe yield the most value. We then provide detailed explanations as to why those props give us the greatest chance of winning. 

Each of us typically unveils three over/under props per week — at least a dozen total — from the vast main-slate offerings on SuperDraft. The concept for the column is simple: we research the matchups, dive into the betting trends, handpick the best props, and then deliver them to you.

Along the way, we keep a record of each of our weekly successes and failures — and of course, we reveal our updated season standings. Our motivations are two-fold: (1) beat our colleagues, and (2) help you beat the books. The more we win, the more money our readers make to help offset Christmas gift shopping!

Take a look at the updated standings after Week 15 of our SN Bets SuperDraft Prop Contest:

I'm rockin' and rollin' around the Christmas tree, going 3-0 once again and pushing my season-long record to 26-17. I can't be stopped! Vinnie bounced back from a rough Week 15 to go 2-1 last week, as did Musial despite falling victim to Arthur Smith (#FreeBijan). Muse had a great call with fading Dak Prescott in Buffalo — if only I listened and benched Dak in our Sporting News expert fantasy league! As for Brinks... what more can we say but we love ya, bud! 

Let's lock in some more winners and capitalize on teams cranking up the volume during the home stretch! If you're not familiar with SuperDraft, check it out! SD's Fantasy Props feature allows users to win 3X the amount wagered if their two-legged player prop parlay hits. The more legs added to the player prop parlay, the larger the potential payout becomes. But obviously, the longer the odds, the more difficult it gets to nail down a clean sweep. Research is imperative.

That's where we come in. Our panel of experts does the leg work, finds the best value, pitches our favorite props, and lets you handle the rest. You can window-shop our recommendations as you please and bet as few or as many of our prop picks as you see fit. Our lucky number with player prop parlays seems to be two (3X payout), but sometimes we'll put a lower stake on a three-prop parlay (6X) or a lotto-ticket wager on an eight-legger (100X).

Let's get to it. Below we will detail our 12 favorite SuperDraft player props for this weekend's NFL games, with our highest-confidence picks listed first. Good luck, happy holidays, and enjoy what should be an entertaining and lucrative Week 16!

NFL Prop Picks Week 16: Our experts' favorite SuperDraft bets

Josh Allen, QB, Bills at Chargers — OVER 244.5 passing yards (Sloan Piva)

Allen only needed 94 passing yards last week in Buffalo's 31-10 romp of the visiting Cowboys. That's because Bills interim offensive coordinator Joe Brady developed a game plan to ram James Cook down the throats of the 'Boys front-seven. This week should involve much more of Allen's arm as he heads to his home state of Cali to face the stumbling, bumbling Bolts.

The Chargers have surrendered 282.4 passing yards per game this season, just 0.5 yards per game fewer than the NFL-worst Buccaneers have allowed. Los Angeles just got absolutely destroyed by Aidan O'Connell and the Raiders without Josh Jacobs, so we fully expect Buffalo to stampede over this squad like Simba in the gorge.

The Bills' running game will still be a focal point, but Allen will also get plenty of opportunities to pad his own stats this week. Don't expect much mercy — Sean McDermott's team still has an outside shot of winning the AFC East if the chips fall in Buffalo's favor. Bet the Bills to buck the Bolts like an angry Blitzen.

James Cook, RB, Bills @ Chargers — OVER 24.5 receiving yards (Vinnie Iyer)

Cook has been destroying it of late all-around from scrimmage as the new focal point of the offense under Joe Brady. The Chargers really have no answers for him in terms of coverage and they have gotten more leaky in general up front. Cook can take a few short catches a long way to easily hit this as he explodes for another massive night.

Tyler Boyd, WR, Bengals @ Steelers — OVER 33.5 receiving yards (Nick Musial)

Boyd is in line for a high-usage day without Ja'Marr Chase (shoulder), as Cincinnati's primary slot wideout likely has the upper hand in his head-to-head matchups against Pittsburgh cornerback Chandon Sullivan (103/119 CBs per PFF). While Boyd's average depth of target (aDOT) of 6.3 yards ranks him 93rd among WRs, he's been much better after the catch, totaling 246 yards after catch (30th among WRs). His yards after catch abilities come in handy when betting his OVER on a relatively low total.

Pat Freiermuth, TE, Steelers vs. Bengals — OVER 25.5 receiving yards (Nick Brinkerhoff)

In the true spirit of Christmas, the Steelers are turning to a reindeer at QB on Saturday. But can Mason Rudolph shine bright enough to lead the Pittsburgh offense out of darkness? History says probably not, but thankfully it’s not what we’re looking for here.

We just need 26 yards from a TE that just went for 120 against this same Bengals team four weeks ago. And if one thing is a given, backup QBs are always looking for the TE. Rudolph hasn’t started a game since 2021, but Freiermuth was targeted nine times in that contest, bringing in five catches for 31 yards.

Cincinnati couldn’t defend TEs if their lives depended on it, allowing a league-high 72.5 yards per game. Expect the “MUTH” chant to challenge Mariah Carey for most played tune of the day. Hammer the over and we’ll take a flier on 50+ yards while sprinkling on a TD as well. Santa Muth will be paying for all the gifts this holiday season. 

James Conner, RB, Cardinals at Bears — OVER 60.5 rushing + receiving yards (Piva)

Conner has averaged 95.5 rushing yards over the past two weeks, adding three TDs during that span. The Bears have allowed an NFL-high 55.7 receiving yards per game to running backs and 89.3 rushing yards per game over their past four contests.

We're just two weeks removed from Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery combining to put 167 all-purpose yards on this Bears defense. I like the Cardinals to mount the upset in Chi-town this Christmas Eve, and Conner should have his fingerprints all over the victory. 

Christian McCaffrey, RB, 49ers vs. Ravens — OVER 31.5 receiving yards (Iyer)

McCaffrey may have somewhat of a tough time straight-up power running on the Ravens, but in the passing game, where there will be attention on Brock Purdy’s three key field-stretching targets, there will be room underneath to get McCaffrey into open field well after the catch. This is the type of matchup he usually comes up with a big receiving play.

Bryce Young, QB, Panthers vs. Packers — OVER 168.5 passing yards (Musial)

A matchup against a reeling Packers coverage unit is exactly what Young needs to build his confidence after Carolina’s last-second win in Week 15. Since Week 10, the Packers’ defense ranks 27th in dropback success rate (49.4%), routinely allowing their opposition to stay ahead of schedule through the air. Baker Mayfield just posted a perfect passer rating against them in his 381-yard, four-TD masterclass, and as long as Young receives ample protection from his offensive line, look for the rookie to surpass 168.5 passing yards.

David Njoku, TE, Browns @ Texans — OVER 50.5 receiving yards (Brinkerhoff)

The Browns have never been a team to have luck on their side, but they are in the midst of quite the Christmas miracle right now. Despite starting four QBs this season, Cleveland is primed to reach the playoffs with Joe Flacco…in 2023. We can file that under words we never thought would be written.

Regardless, Njoku is a big reason for the Browns’ success as of late, turning it up a notch over the last two weeks. Over that span, the TE is averaging 11 targets and posting 97.5 yards per game. The Texans have struggled to contain TEs all year long and Flacco is locked on Njoku. Ride the hot hand and expect this trend to continue. 

David Njoku, TE, Browns at Texans — OVER 50.5 yards (Piva)

We don't usually duplicate picks, but I have to agree with Brinks that this is one of the stone-cold (or Sloan-cold, if you prefer) locks of the week. Njoku has been playing like a man possessed since Joe Flacco became the Browns' starting QB, and we'll be riding the magic like Dasher and Dancer this Christmas weekend. Fifty yards almost feels like an insult to the veteran tight end — he has 195 yards and three TDs over the past two weeks alone!

Beyond that, Njoku has bested 50.5 in seven of Cleveland's past nine games, and he now faces a Texans defense that has surrendered the fourth-most receiving yards to the tight end position this season (62.5 yards per game). We're all-in on this prop like my daughter is all-in on a Frozen motorcycle as the No. 1 item on her Christmas wish list (she had to settle for a Paw Patrol scooter — the Frozen bike is a hot commodity!). 

Justin Jefferson, WR, Vikings vs. Lions — OVER 80.5 receiving yards (Iyer)

Jefferson is warmed up returning from his two injuries and now can explode on the Lions secondary working with aggressive QB Nick Mullens. Jefferson is due for a big game and saw Jordan Addison have more fun last week. The Vikings need to get their best player the ball often in what can be a sneaky shootout.

Trey McBride, TE, Cardinals @ Bears — OVER 59.5 receiving yards (Musial)

McBride is just about the only reliable pass catcher set to play on Sunday, with Arizona likely down both Marquise Brown (heel) and Greg Dortch (shoulder). McBride is fresh off a 10-catch, 102-yard showing against a 49ers defense that’s held its own against TEs. The Bears, on the other hand, haven’t held up nearly as well against TEs, most recently getting torched by David Njoku to the tune of 104 yards and a TD on 10 receptions. Look for Arizona’s go-to pass-catcher to maintain his elite play.

T.J. Hockenson, TE, Vikings vs. Lions — OVER 53.5 receiving yards (Brinkerhoff)

Hockenson might be finding himself on the naughty list on Sunday after seeking revenge on his former team. This will be the second time the TE has taken on the Lions since being shipped to the division rival last November. And if the first matchup was any indication, this Detroit defense could be in for a long day.

Hockenson cooked the Lions for six catches (eight targets) and 77 yards last December, but Minnesota is a different team this year, forcing him to take on a bigger role. He is now the most targeted TE in the league and saw plenty of action from backup QB Nick Mullens against the Bengals last week. Expect another heavy workload with plenty of reasons to deliver as the Vikings march toward a playoff spot.