Steelers vs. Bills NFL Player Props, Odds: Predictions for Wild Card Weekend
Don't expect a ton of offense when the Pittsburgh Steelers and Buffalo Bills meet over NFL Wild Card Weekend, and our Steelers vs. Bills NFL player props based on the best NFL odds are selective with which playmakers we're trusting on Sunday.
This playoff showdown between the Pittsburgh Steelers (10-7) and Buffalo Bills (11-6) was already shaping up as a defensive duel, particularly with key stars returning for Pittsburgh's defense leading up to the wild-card round. The wintry weather further adds intrigue to this game, potentially making it must-see TV as the opening match of three on Sunday during Wild Card Weekend.
Any potential fireworks on display between these offenses won't be the main attraction. Instead, a winter snowstorm with temperatures below freezing and winds reaching up to 30 mph with gusts approaching 50 mph could steal the show. If recent history is any indication, this will spell bad news for any semblance of a legitimate passing game on Sunday.
In addition to our Steelers vs. Bills prediction and our NFL player props and best bets for Wild Card Weekend, here are our best Steelers vs. Bills NFL player props for Wild Card Weekend (odds via our best NFL betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
Steelers vs. Bills NFL player props for Wild Card Weekend
Mason Rudolph Under 29.5 yards longest completion (-115 via BetMGM) ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐
Anyone who follows my bets regularly knows I love attacking the longest completion market, which can often be a nice alternative to fade a lousy quarterback (or target an underrated one) when their yardage prop offers subpar value. It's also one of my favorite ways to bet what should be a wind-marred affair.
This serves both purposes, as I have very little faith in Rudolph's ability to break through against a resurgent Bills defense and suspect the Steelers coaching staff will lean heavily on the run game in these wintry conditions. That said, Rudolph's passing yardage prop is trading in the 150s, which is quite the pill to swallow for Under bettors.
Instead, I'm betting against Pittsburgh's third-string QB completing a 30-yard pass on Sunday. Yes, he's cleared this total in all three starts thus far, but he's also benefitted tremendously from explosive plays after the catch, as his YAC/completion (7.7) is the highest of any passer with at least 70 attempts. Many of his completions have looked a lot like this:
On the other hand, his intended air yards per attempt (7.0) ranks 38th out of 52 passers with as many attempts as Rudolph, who now faces a Bills defense allowing the second-lowest average depth of target (6.8) in the league. The weather is the impetus for this bet, but the matchup makes it even sweeter.
Rudolph will also be one of four QBs making their first playoff start, which hasn't gone well for playoff newcomers in the past. That's another reason to fade Rudolph on Sunday, and this wager is my single favorite way to do that.
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Dalton Kincaid Over 34.5 receiving yards (-114 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
I'm leery of betting any offensive Overs in this game given the impending winter snowstorm expected to take hold on Sunday. This is the exception in a tremendous matchup for the Bills tight end.
If you just look at the box score, Kincaid has had a relatively uneven rookie campaign. The eye test tells the story of an emerging stud, though, which was on full display last week when he hauled in seven catches for 84 yards - his second straight game with 80-plus yards and ninth with at least 35 yards in 16 appearances.
Now he faces a Steelers defense that has struggled to contain shifty tight ends this season, especially late in the year.
Ten different tight ends finished with at least 35 yards against Pittsburgh this season - Cleveland Browns tight end David Njoku did so twice - and the Steelers allowed two such performances in the same game in Week 17, when Noah Fant (59 yards) and Colby Parkinson (38) both went off for the Seattle Seahawks.
I don't mind betting the Over on his receptions total, which is trading as low as 3.5 (-125) via bet365, but I'm still a bit skeptical of Buffalo's overall passing volume on Sunday. That's also why this isn't a five-star play. That said, I still expect Kincaid to weather the storm (literally) as a featured part of the Bills' attack this weekend.
Najee Harris to score a touchdown (+230 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐
This wager is clearly seeing a lengthened price because of the weather conditions for Sunday's game, which has seen the betting total drop into the mid-30s. Still, I'm surprised to see these odds on Harris, who figures to be a featured part of the Steelers' offense this weekend.
That's been the case in nearly every game over the back half of the season, especially since the team fired offensive coordinator Matt Canada ahead of Week 12.
Since then, Harris has averaged 18.1 carries - seventh-most in the NFL - with five touchdowns in that stretch, which is tied for sixth-most by any back. He's also ranked in the top five in rushing yards over expectation, per NFL Next Gen Stats, which speaks to his ability to generate gains beyond his circumstances.
That'll be key on Sunday, when circumstances will be sup-optimal for scoring. That said, blizzard-like conditions should also mean another heavy workload for Harris, who has seen back-to-back games with 25-plus carries and feels like a solid bet to see similar volume this weekend.
That's enough for me to sprinkle some money on his anytime touchdown odds at this price, which is a clear outlier among our best sports betting sites.
Steelers-Bills player props made Thursday at 3 p.m. ET.
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