Best picks to win March Madness: Why Alabama, Marquette and Tennessee have value

When you fill out your March Madness bracket this year, which school name are you pencilling in at the end? If it’s one you feel confident in, you might want to consider placing an outright bet.

The pregame narrative: A 68-team, do-or-die tournament is bound to have plenty of surprises. Only one school will survive all the way to the end, and we’ve got three in mind that could certainly make it there.

Here are our best picks to win March Madness for the upcoming NCAA tournament.

NCAA basketball odds as of 4:15 p.m. ET on 03/13/2023.

March Madness outright picks

Best Bet: Alabama (+700)

Yes, we’re leading with one of the chalkiest possible selections (don’t worry, there’s a little more pizzazz in the picks to come).

As the No. 1 overall seed, Alabama (29-5) offers plenty of hope for bettors. The Crimson Tide were a dazzling 13-5 (.722) against Quad 1 opponents this season, which was the best win percentage among teams with at least a dozen Quad 1 matchups.

We also really like Alabama’s path to the Final Four. Every bracket has tough teams, but we can pick at the other top seeds in the Tide’s region:

• No. 2 Arizona went just 6-3 in its final nine games — including a loss to lowly Stanford
• No. 3 Baylor lost four of its final six games and was one-and-done in the Big 12 tourney
• No. 4 Virginia went 4-3 down the stretch — with a loss to Boston College

Arizona did win the Pac-12 tourney, but none of those teams are sizzling like Alabama. The Tide are 20-3 since Dec. 20, and all three losses came in true road games.

Key stat: Alabama allows the lowest effective field goal rate in the nation (41.5%).

Quick picks

Marquette (+2,000): If you aren’t on board with the revival of the Big East, this pick isn’t for you.

But if you believe this conference is mimicking its heyday, then you have to respect what the Golden Eagles have done this season.

Marquette enters March Madness on a nine-game win streak, barrelling its way through the Big East tournament on the way.

Five of its six losses came against tourney teams, and its win total includes UConn (twice), Xavier (twice) and Baylor, to name a few.

It’s been 10 years since the Golden Eagles won a game at the Big Dance, but who cares? Coach Shaka Smart has found success in March before and he can do it again.

Tennessee (+3,000):If only there was a team with 30-to-1 odds that had already beaten three of the top five March Madness frontrunners... oh wait, there is!

The Volunteers are 3-0 against Alabama, Kansas and Texas, defeating all of them by nine points or more. Not a bad line to add to one’s resume.

Two more things to like about Tennessee: they move the ball exceptionally well and they play frenzied defence.

The Vols rank second in opponent effective field goal percentage (42.4%) and they generate assists on 66.2% of all field goals (second in the NCAA).