Vermont vs. Marquette Predictions, Odds & Picks: Will Shaka Smart End His March Madness Losing Streak?

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15 March 2023

Vermont vs. Marquette Predictions, Odds & Picks: Will Shaka Smart End His March Madness Losing Streak?

Two regular season and conference tournament champions meet in the Round of 64 as the No. 2-seed Marquette Golden Eagles face the No. 15-seed Vermont Catamounts. Read on for our Vermont vs. Marquette prediction based on the top NCAAB odds.

Vermont (23-10, 14-2 America East) enters the tournament having won 15 consecutive games, which is D-I’s second-longest active winning streak behind Oral Roberts’ 17. The Catamounts are no stranger to the NCAA Tournament, appearing in three of the previous four.

Marquette (28-6, 17-3 Big East) laughed at those who picked it to finish ninth out of 11 teams in the Big East preseason media poll. The Golden Eagles won the regular season conference title by two games and went 6-2 in its last eight games against NCAA Tournament teams down the stretch. Head coach Shaka Smart is looking to snap a seven-game NCAA Tournament losing streak.

Here is our best Vermont vs. Marquette prediction (odds via WynnBet; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Vermont vs. Marquette odds

Instead of evaluating Vermont against America East competition, where it ranks atop nearly every offensive category, it is wiser to look through the lens of the non-conference and how it fared against NCAA Tournament-caliber competition. The Catamounts played four tournament teams (Saint Mary’s, USC, Iona, and Colgate) and one more (Yale) that was one win away from punching its ticket to March Madness. In those games, the offensive results were not pretty, which is why Vermont won just one of those games (a one-point road win at Colgate).

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In the four losses, Vermont was a combined 60-of-125 (48%) from 2-point range and 20-of-81 (24.7%) from beyond the arc. In addition, they committed 50 combined turnovers in those games and were held to 0.84 or fewer points per possession in all four.

Marquette is a defensive team that prides itself on active hands and deflections, which is why it forces turnovers at the 18th-highest rate nationally. The Golden Eagles average 39.2 points in the paint per game, tied for the sixth-most in D-I. However, this is a four-star play as Vermont will make sure few of those paint points come in transition, as the Catamounts eschewed offensive rebounds (four or fewer offensive rebounds in three of the non-conference games mentioned above) to get back defensively.

Vermont vs. Marquette best odds

WynnBet (-108)

March Madness odds and all of our March Madness picks and betting trends.

Even though three of the major sportsbooks all offer a total of 144.5 (the highest number out there), WynnBet is the best spot for Over backers since it charges slightly less than the standard -110 juice.

Vermont allowed 57.7 points per game in three conference tournament games, while Marquette’s 63 points per game allowed in the Big East Tournament were lower than the 70.6 points per game it allowed throughout the season, which means these teams are playing well defensively at the moment.

Vermont vs. Marquette odds analysis

Marquette opened as consensus 10.5-point favorites, and only DraftKings has budged off that number, going to -11. Fifty-five percent of all point spread wagers have backed the favorite.

The consensus opening Over/Under was 144.5, but any line movement has shaded to the Under, with BetMGM the lowest of any sportsbook at 143.5. Early betting splits are 2/1 in favor of the Over.