Best Players Championship Odds Boosts

sportsbookreview.com

08 March 2023

The top golfers in the world begin play at TPC Sawgrass on Thursday, and sports betting analyst Neil Parker has evaluated all of the best odds boosts for The Players Championship based on the best odds.

Best odds boosts for The Players Championship

DraftKings

This is a no-brainer.

Want to bet Rory McIlroy with your Players Championship picks? This boost takes his odds from +900 to +1150, while presenting a positive expected value of 25%.

I’d highly recommend using this boost on a player with low odds because it increases your edge. For comparison, moving Players Championship sleeper pick Si Woo Kim from +5000 to +5250 adds a positive expected value of only 7%.

Here are the respective odds for the four players to make the cut individually, and their combined odds:

Rahm: -900
Homa: -425
Finau: -380
Kim: -295
Parlay odds: +132

Mathematically, this is a solid boost. The +175 number offers a positive expected value of 19% over the highlighted +132 odds. However, it’s worth noting from a handicap perspective that Finau missed the cut in four of his six trips to TPC Sawgrass, and this will be Kim’s first appearance in The Players.

This isn’t the easiest boost to analyze because Caesars doesn’t have a prop market for whether or not golfers will make the cut. Additionally, while DraftKings does, it does not include the entire field of golfers.

Thankfully, FanDuel does have all three of these golfers to make the cut priced at the following odds, which can be parlayed to +289.

Kim: -192
Kirk: -192
Kitayama: -146

Based on those odds, we’re landing a positive expected value of 8% with this boost.

Both DraftKings and FanDuel have all three golfers included in their respective cut markets, so there are multiple angles from which to evaluate this boost. The best odds are available through FanDuel, with Fowler, Day, and Kuchar priced at +205 compared to +185 through DraftKings.

Based on the DraftKings numbers, this boost offers a positive expected value of 14%.

Using the implied probability of Theegala’s +650 odds and Dahmen’s +1400 to record a top-10 finish this week, we land at a +400 number. However, it’s definitely worth noting both golfers are trading at lower prices via FanDuel, with Theegala priced at +600 and Dahmen at +1300.

There’s an edge in the numbers with this boost. It presents a positive expected value of 5% based on the odds through Caesars and 12% over the FanDuel offerings.

The most important consideration with this boost is that Caesars is hanging the lowest odds for Rahm (+750) and Scheffler (+900) across our best sportsbooks. As a result, while there is value presented here based on Caesars' Players Championship odds, there isn’t a comparison to numbers through other shops.

For example, based on the implied probability of the Caesar odds, this boost should be trading at +214. However, the numbers through FanDuel would be +272. When comparing the +272 to the +275 attached to this boost the positive expected value is just 1%.

I don’t recommend this boost.

This is definitely a unique boost to judge. The odds for there to be a hole in one during the tournament are -200 with an implied probability of 66.7% through Caesars. For comparison, the numbers are respectively -225 and 69.2% through DraftKings.

Both sportsbooks have Homa trading at +210 to card a top-10 result this week. A Ceasars parlay would be priced at +365, and it would be +348 through DraftKings.

Remember, too, a tie for 10th makes this boost a loser.

While I don’t like the cut of this boost’s jib, it does present an edge based on the numbers. There’s a positive expected value of 18% when compared to the Caesars odds and an even better 23% based on the numbers via DraftKings.

I do not recommend this boost.

Of the eight, single-course tournaments in 2023, there’s only been a solo first-round leader in three of them. It’s more common for there to be a tied leaderboard following 18 holes of play. As a result, the nugget that ties are losses is sneaky in this case.

Typically, ties result in a dead-heat rule and the odds are cut based on how many golfers are tied. For example, if Schauffele and two other golfers tied for the lowest Round 1 score, then you would win a third of the +4500 odds (+1500). However, again, that isn’t the case in this instance.

Additionally, with Caesars hanging Schauffele at +4000 to be the leader after Round 1, I don’t value the positive expected value of 10% enough to offset my handicap that he won’t be the first-round leader or the tie clause.

From a numbers perspective, this is a solid boost. Caesars has Hatton listed at +165 and Bradley at +185 to finish in the top 20. Similarly, FanDuel has the duo respectively trading at +150 and +195.

Based on the Caesars numbers, a top-20 parlay would be priced at +642, which attaches a positive expected value of 15% to the +750 odds. The edge climbs slightly to 16% based on the FanDuel parlay odds of +638.

I don’t recommend this boost because of the stipulation that ties are losses, and there are also comparable +320 odds available through FanDuel for Burns to post a top-20 finish.

This boost presents a positive expected value of just 1% over the +320 number via FanDuel, and if Burns does in fact finish in a tie for 20th, dead-heat rules will still pay out the according portion of your FanDuel wager. This boost is a loss in the event of a tie.

There is a respectable edge attached to this boost. Prospective Young bettors are gaining a positive expected value of 10% over the widely available +400 odds that he’ll finish in the top 10.

Additionally, it’s definitely worth highlighting that FanDuel has Young priced at +360 to card a top-10 result, so the value increases to 19% when comparing the boost to those odds.

Before digging into the numbers associated with this boost, it’s important to peek at Spieth’s track record at The Players. He’s missed the cut in five of his past seven trips to the tournament with a T-41 as his best result during the run.

This is another boost that checks out based on the numbers, though.

A Zalatoris-Spieth parlay for both golfers to record a top-20 finish would be priced at +600 based on the odds through Caesars. Additionally, FanDuel has the two-legger at a shorter +548.

It all adds up to a positive expected value of 14% compared to the odds via Caesars, and an even better 23% over the numbers through FanDuel. Just remember a tie axes the deal.

This is a horrible boost because Caesars has a short number on Fitzpatrick at +130 to card a top-20 finish compared to our other best sportsbooks. DraftKings and PointsBet both have the Englishman priced at +160, and FanDuel is listing him at +180 in the top-20 market.

Additionally, you can build and bet a two-leg parlay with Fitzpatrick and Fleetwood to both post top-20 finishes at +992 odds through FanDuel.

Don’t bet this boost through Caesars.

Even with the boosted odds, this is the worst price available for Finau to win The Players across our best sportsbooks. Each of the other four shops is listing Finau with Players Championship odds of +2800 to win this week.

This is a bad boost.

This is an easy boost to break down, and if you’re a believer in Rickie winning his second Players and first tournament since the 2019 Waste Management Phoenix Open, you should back this boost. We're backing Fowler with our Players Championship sleeper picks and Players Championship best bets.

The +7000 odds offer a positive expected value of 14% over the +6000 number. However, considering FanDuel is hanging Fowler at +5000 odds to win outright this week, this boost presents an even higher positive expected value (42%) over the available number through FanDuel.

FanDuel

I’m giving this boost a nod for entertainment value. However, it’s definitely not the easiest to analyze from a numbers perspective because FanDuel isn’t listing odds for Thomas to record an eagle in Round 1.

McIlroy and Rahm are respectively priced at +340 and +380 to card a double-circle Thursday, and Scottie Scheffler is also trading in the market at +380, so there is at least a starting point.

Additionally, Rahm paces the PGA Tour in eagles per hole frequency, whereas McIlroy and Thomas sit tied for 54th. However, McIlroy and Thomas respectively ranked 11th and 20th last season.

It’s also worth noting the trio combined for just two eagles across 12 rounds during last year’s event, with McIlroy and Thomas each carding one.

Using the highlighted odds that McIlroy and Rahm will record an eagle in Round 1, and booking Thomas in the middle at +360 adds up to an implied probability of 65.2% and translates to a -187 price that one of the three will record an eagle Thursday.

Those numbers don’t jibe with me, and I don’t view this as an advantageous wager regardless of the numbers. However, as noted, I love the entertainment factor — there are 12 traditional opportunities between the three to card an eagle on the par 5s.

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