Best Receiver Player Prop Bets (Overs) for 2023

It’s that time of year to start looking at player prop bets for the upcoming 2023 NFL season.

In the coming weeks, we’ll take a look at some over and under future bets worth considering at each position group.

Garrett Wilson Receiving Yards Prop: Why You Should Bet the Over:

Current Receiving Yards Over/Under for Garrett Wilson:

• 1125.5 receiving yards at FanDuel Sportsbook
• 1150.5 receiving yards at BetMGM Sportsbook

Why You Should Bet the Over:

• Aaron Rodgers feeds his WR1
• Huge upgrade in quarterback accuracy

#1 Reason to bet the Over:

Aaron Rodgers loves peppering his favorite receiver with targets.

For example, in his final season with Davante Adams in 2021, Adams had a 35% target share when he was on the field, per TruMedia.

Even last year, once Christian Watson had his breakout game in Week 10, he commanded a 30% target share when on the field over the final eight games. 

Garrett Wilson started to earn that trust from Jets quarterbacks last year — he had a 28.7% target share when on the field — but ineffective play and constant turnover (three different starting quarterbacks) likely suppressed his overall numbers. 

#2 Reason to bet the Over:

Last year, 17% of Wilson’s targets were incomplete due to inaccurate throws according to TruMedia/PFF.

Rodgers’ inaccuracy rate of 10.3% was surprisingly high given his reputation, but still under the league average of 10.9%. 

So even if Rodgers remains a league-average quarterback in terms of accuracy, it will represent a significant upgrade for Wilson.

Better accuracy from his quarterback means Wilson should have more opportunities to make plays, even if his usage rate were to remain the same.  

Amari Cooper Receiving Yards Prop: Why You Should Bet the Over:

Current Receiving Yards Over/Under for Amari Cooper:

• 924.5 receiving yards at BetMGM

Why You Should Bet the Over:

• Long track record of hitting this over
• Limited competition

#1 Reason to bet the Over:

Amari Cooper has played at least 15 games in seven seasons, reaching at least 1,000 yards in six of those campaigns. 

Last year, his first season in Cleveland, Cooper finished with 1,160 yards despite playing 11 games with Jacoby Brissett. 

Over the final six games of the year with Deshaun Watson, Cooper posted 368 receiving yards 一 a pace of 1,043 over a full season. 

Cooper is still just 29 years old and we should trust his track record, which has remained steady across multiple offensive schemes and quarterbacks.

#2 Reason to bet the Over:

The Browns added Elijah Moore from the Jets and Cedric Tillman in the third round of the draft, but it’s unlikely either makes a significant dent in Cooper’s workload. 

Moore was inconsistent and immature during his tenure in New York (and in college), so it’s tough to predict how he’ll fit in on and off the field in Cleveland. 

Tillman is a talented outside weapon but comes from Josh Heupel’s overly simplistic offense at Tennessee — an offshoot of the Art Briles system that produced Browns’ bust CoreyColeman.

We’ve never seen a receiver from that system make a smooth transition to the league, so immediate expectations should be low for Tillman. 

#2 Reason to bet the Over:

There has also been widespread speculation that Cleveland will develop a more pass-heavy approach to accommodate Watson. 

Head coach KevinStefanski recently stated, via ClevelandBrowns.com:

“When we design everything, it’s always making sure it fits Deshaun’s eyes… When a quarterback is comfortable with a play, he typically makes it work.”

So if Cleveland is adding to its passing offense, and Cooper is maintaining the same role, there’s no reason to expect a dropoff in production.

Tyler Higbee Receiving Yards Prop: Why You Should Bet the Over:

Current Receiving Yards Over/Under for Tyler Higbee:

• 500.5 receiving yards at BetMGM

Why You Should Bet the Over:

• Strong track record
• Cooper Kupp doesn’t matter

#1 Reason to bet the Over:

Tyler Higbee has surpassed 500 receiving yards in four consecutive seasons. Although expectations are low for the Rams this year, the offense likely can’t get any worse than it was in 2022. 

The Rams ranked dead last in total offense and 27th in passing offense a season ago while Higbee posted 620 receiving yards. 

#2 Reason to bet the Over:

It would be reasonable to assume Higbee benefitted from Cooper Kupp’s absence last year (he appeared in just nine games), but the opposite may be true. 

According to TruMedia, when Kupp and Higbee were on the field together, Higbee saw a 23% target share compared to 25% when Higbee was on the field without Kupp. 

That’s a slight increase in usage rate, but because the offense as a whole was worse without Kupp, Higbee’s numbers were worse without him as well. 

Take a look at Higbee’s per-game numbers last year:

• Games with Kupp; 7.2 targets per game, 42.8 yards per game
• Games without Kupp: 5.4 targets per game, 29.4 yards per game

So with the Rams’ offense likely getting marginally better with a healthy Kupp and Matthew Stafford, Higbee’s production should remain steady.