Best Running Back Player Prop Bets (Overs) for 2023
It’s that time of year to start looking at player prop bets for the upcoming 2023 NFL season.
In the coming weeks, we’ll take a look at some over and under future bets worth considering at each position group.
Aaron Jones Rushing Yards Prop: Why You Should Bet the Over:
Current Rushing Yards Over/Under for Aaron Jones:
- 799.5 rushing yards on BetMGM
Why You Should Bet the Over:
- Ran for over 1,000 yards in three of the last four years
- Expected run-heavy game plan
#1 Reason to bet the Over:
Aaron Jones has topped the 1,000-yard mark in three of the last four years and landed at 799 yards in 15 games in the one season he fell below the threshold.
The year Jones landed at 799 yards was in 2021 when the Packers went 13-3. With Green Bay leading in most games, AJ Dillon dominated touches in the second half of many games.
Excluding the two games which Jones missed in 2021, let’s compare their second-half carries when the Packers held a lead:
Now take a look at their first-half touches:
Dillon is the more powerful downhill runner, making him ideal for running out the clock.
But the Packers have always preferred Jones’s more explosive ability when the game is in doubt. And there’s little reason to think Green Bay will hold many second half leads this season.
#2 Reason to bet the Over:
Last year, Green Bay handed the ball off on 53.7% of first-down plays in the first through third quarters, the league’s fourth-highest rate, per TruMedia.
With Jordan Love taking over for Aaron Rodgers, the incentive to employ a conservative game plan only increases.
Although MattLaFleur calls plays for the Packers, it’s worth noting his new offensive coordinator AdamStenavich is a former offensive line coach and run game coordinator.
It stands to reason Stenavich will be pushing for a more run-heavy approach, especially with a first-time starting quarterback.
Nick Chubb Rushing Touchdowns Prop: Why You Should Bet the Over:
Current Rushing Touchdown Over/Under for Nick Chubb:
- 8.5 rushing touchdowns on BetMGM
Why You Should Bet the Over:
- 12 touchdowns on an inconsistent offense last year
- Improved offense in DeshaunWatson’s second year?
- No KareemHunt
#1 Reason to bet the Over:
The Browns ranked 18th in scoring offense a season ago, and Nick Chubb still managed to score 12 touchdowns on the ground.
Cleveland has never had an elite scoring offense in the Chubb era, peaking at 14th in 2020.
However, both times the team ranked inside the top 20 in scoring offense, Chubb reached double-digit touchdowns.
#2 Reason to bet the Over:
If Chubb can reach 12 touchdowns for a sputtering offense, he should be able to hit the over for an improved unit in Deshaun Watson’s second year.
Although this version of the Browns offense is expected to be more pass-heavy than years past, it’s possible that helps Chubb’s touchdown total.
A more efficient passing offense should lead to more red zone trips and more scoring opportunities for Chubb.
#3 Reason to bet the Over:
Kareem Hunt, who ran for 14 touchdowns during his three years with the Browns, will no longer be taking reps away from Chubb.
The team elected not to replace Hunt with a veteran, instead allowing second-year pro JeromeFord to ascend to the backup role.
Ford may prove to be a capable backup, but there’s no reason to expect him to take critical goal line touches away from Chubb.
Travis Etienne Rushing Yards Prop: Why You Should Bet the Over:
Current Rushing Yards Over/Under for Travis Etienne:
- 900.5 rushing yards on FanDuel Sportsbook
Why You Should Bet the Over:
- Over 1,100 yards last year
- TankBigsby is overrated
#1 Reason to bet the Over:
Assuming good health, Travis Etienne’s production would need to fall off a cliff for him to land under 900 yards.
Etienne posted 1,125 yards last year and had already surpassed the 900-yard mark by Week 14.
Even when the Jaguars were struggling 一 they got off to a 2-6 start 一 Etienne was already up to 571 yards through eight games.
#2 Reason to bet the Over:
There’s been some offseason hype around rookie Tank Bigsby, the Jaguars’ third-round selection.
However, I’m hesitant to believe Bigsby is a legitimate threat to Etienne’s workload based on his production at Auburn.
The 213-pound Bigsby is built like a between-the-tackles runner but lacked the vision in college to consistently excel in that area.
According to Sports Info Solutions, when contacted at or behind the line of scrimmage last season, Bigsby was stuffed for zero or negative yards 53% of his carries, ranked 57th out of 67 qualified Power Five running backs 一 for more context, that’s the same rate as the diminutive Deuce Vaughn.
Theoretically, the more physical Bigsby could see increased action in situations where the Jaguars are attempting to bleed the clock, but if he’s generating negative plays at a high rate, he’ll quickly lose those opportunities.
