Steelers vs. Browns odds, line, spread: Thursday Night Football picks, predictions by NFL model that's 139-102

Cleveland Browns and Pittsburgh Steelers meet on Thursday Night Football at 8:15 p.m. ET at FirstEnergy Stadium. It's the first of two meetings between these teams this season. Caesars Sportsbook lists Cleveland as a 4.5-point favorite. The over/under is 38 in the latest Steelers vs. Browns odds. SportsLine's computer model simulates every NFL game 10,000 times and has a 139-102 record on top-rated NFL picks since it was launched in 2017.

The model has set its sights on Steelers vs. Browns and has made its predictions. Pittsburgh is 9-10-1 against the spread in the last 20 games and Cleveland is 8-11 against a spread against them in last 19 games.

Steelers vs. Browns is Thursday Night Football. The Steelers are 9-10-1 against the spread in the last 20 games. Cleveland is 8-11 against-the-spread in last 19 games and is favored by 4.5 points.

Pittsburgh's defense is still very good despite the loss of T.J. Watt. The team has five interceptions this season and creates a turnover on 25% of defensive possessions. Minkah Fitzpatrick is a difference-maker at the defensive back position. Cleveland's offense is not very dynamic without Deshaun Watson.

Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt form one of the most potent running back duos in the NFL. Chubbs has three straight 1,000-yard rushing seasons and is hyper-efficient. Amari Cooper has five 1-000 yard seasons on his profile and in top 15 among active players in career receptions, receiving yards, and receiving touchdowns.

SportsLine's model is leaning Over on the total and projects 40 combined points scored. One side of the spread hits in well over 50% of simulations.