NFL Week 2: What rushing over expected tells us about RB prop bets

Rushing yards over expected (RYOE) is built using PFF charting data. It adjusts for game situation, how well the offensive line blocked and how good the defense is at defending the run.

Kareem Hunt is a below-average rusher. Nick Chubb is better than Hunt.

Jets earned a 64.3 run defense grade in Week 1. Baltimore had 17 runs with an expected yards per carry of 3.7 and actual yards of three.9. PFF’s Greenline Player Props tool has this play as a +2. 9% edge.

Jonathan Taylor is currently the best rusher in the NFL. He has racked up 292 rushing yards since the start of the 2020 season. In the first game of this season, Taylor rushed 31 times for 161 yards at 5.2 yards per carry.

Taylor has gone over 100 yards 61.1% of the time since the start of 2021 season. He rushed for 116 yards in his first matchup against the Jaguars and 77 yards against them in the second.

Justin Fields had 20 designed rushes last season that were expected to get 4.54 yards per carry but he got 2.25. In week one, he rushed the ball 11 times for a total of 28 yards.

Green Bay's defense is built to stop quarterbacks. Last season, LB De’Vondre Campbell earned a team-high 81.5 rush defense grade. Rookie LB Quay Walker earned 68.2 rush defence grade in his debut. Edges Preston Smith and Rashan Gary both finished with 70+ run defense grades last year.

PFF Greenline’s Player Props tool has this as a +6.1% edge. It's the second highest edge for any rushing prop of the week.