Betting an International Invader in Woodbine's Natalma Stakes

America's Best Racing

14 September 2023

Betting an International Invader in Woodbine's Natalma Stakes

When trainer Charlie Appleby ships a horse from Europe to compete at Woodbine in Canada, bettors are wise to sit up and take notice. Why? Because Appleby trainees at Woodbine are about as close to unbeatable as you can get in horse racing.

The 2023 Grade 1 Johnnie Walker Natalma Stakes is taking place this Saturday at Woodbine. With a $500,000 purse and a Breeders' Cup Challenge Series “Win and You’re In” berth to the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf up for grabs, the race has attracted a giant field of 15 fillies. There are many viable win contenders, but only #1 Dazzling Star hails from the Appleby barn, and history suggests Appleby alone is reason enough to bet on Dazzling Star.

The statistics don’t lie. Appleby has saddled nine starters at Woodbine, all in Grade 1 races. Seven of them have won, and another finished second by a head. The seven winners include a pair of 2-year-old fillies who won the prestigious Natalma Stakes racing one mile on the Woodbine turf course: La Pelosa (2018) and Wild Beauty (2021).

Neither La Pelosa nor Wild Beauty entered the Natalma with particularly inspiring form; it’s not like they’d been beating up on top-tier competition in Europe. So we won’t worry about the fact that Dazzling Star’s resume looks a little light. The daughter of standout sprinter Blue Point finished eighth in her debut on a synthetic track at Kempton Park before breaking her maiden by 3 1/2 lengths in a turf sprint at Newmarket. Stepping up in class for the Group 3 Princess Margaret dashing three-quarters of a mile over the Ascot grass saw Dazzling Star settle for fourth place in a field of 10.

The form of the Princess Margaret has held up reasonably well. The victorious Sacred Angel came back to finish fourth against male rivals in the Group 1 Sumbe Prix Morny. Runner-up Pretty Crystal, beaten three lengths in the Princess Margaret, returned to run fourth by 2 1/4 lengths in the Group 3 Prestige Fillies’ Stakes. And third-place finisher Symbology returned to finish third by only 1 1/4 lengths in the Group 2 Lowther Stakes.

The takeaway? Dazzling Star was beaten by quality competition in the Princess Margaret, so her fourth-place finish is arguably better than it at first appears. And since Grade 1 races at Woodbine tend to be ripe for conquest by Group 2 and even Group 3 horses from Europe, we have to view Dazzling Star as the filly to beat in the Natalma. It helps that she’ll be ridden by William Buick, who has compiled three wins, three seconds, and two thirds from nine rides at Woodbine, all in Grade 1 or Grade 2 stakes.

Who are the other logical contenders? Among the locals, #6 Airosa and #14 Golden Canarywarrant respect. They finished first and second in a maiden special weight sprinting 6 1/2 furlongs at Woodbine earlier this summer, then went their separate ways to win stakes at the same course and distance. Airosa was best by one length in a fast renewal of the Catch a Glimpse Stakes against fellow fillies, while Golden Canary beat males (and some fillies, too) in the Soaring Free Stakes on the same afternoon.

New York raider #4 Brocknardiniis another interesting contender. The George Weaver trainee debuted in a 1 1/16-mile maiden special weight race against New York-bred fillies at Saratoga and exploded from off the pace to dominate by 4 3/4 lengths. The form of that victory was flattered when third-place finisher Bernietakescharge returned to win her next start by 8 1/2 lengths.

Brocknardini is stepping up against tougher competition at Woodbine, but her authoritative maiden score suggests she has talent and upside. She figures to offer a nice price in the betting, so who’s to say she won’t crack the top three or four and boost the payoffs?

#13 Dea Matrona, a winner in France during the spring, can’t be counted out of the mix while making her first start for four-time Eclipse Award-winning trainer Chad Brown. Nor can we ignore #12 Ozara, who battled to victory in a 1 1/16-mile maiden special weight at Saratoga last month. The runner-up, Weigh the Risks, came right back to win a similar race, flattering Ozara’s form.

So how do we take all these opinions and turn them into a betting strategy? If you’re playing on a small budget (say, $10), we recommend skipping exotic wagers in favor of a plain win bet on Dazzling Star. But if you have more money and want to aim for a bigger payday, we also have strategies incorporating exacta and trifecta wagers into the mix.

Wagering Strategy on a $10 Budget

$10 to win on #1 Dazzling Star

What to say at the betting window: Woodbine, 8th race, $10 to win on #1

Wagering Strategy on a $30 Budget

$15 to win on #1 Dazzling Star

What to say at the betting window: Woodbine, 8th race, $15 to win on #1

$5 exacta: 1 with 4,6,12 ($15)

What to say at the betting window: Woodbine, 8th race, $5 exacta 1 with 4,6,12

Wagering Strategy on a $50 Budget

$20 to win on #1 Dazzling Star

What to say at the betting window: Woodbine, 8th race, $20 to win on #1

$6 exacta: 1 with 4,6,12 ($18)