Looking for Live Longshots to Handle the Distance Test in Demoiselle
The $250,000 Demoiselle Stakes on Saturday at Aqueduct presents an intriguing challenge to both the nine 2-year-old fillies entered and bettors interested in playing the race. The distance of 1 1/8 miles is uncommon for 2-year-old fillies on the dirt and looms the key piece of the Demoiselle puzzle.
For the trainers of the nine entrants, it’s a great chance to see if their fillies can handle the distance of the Longines Kentucky Oaks, for which the Demoiselle is a qualifying points race, awarding the top five finishers points on a 10-5-3-2-1 scale.
Likewise, there is an element of unknown for handicappers planning to bet a few bucks on the race as the question to be answered is which filly or fillies are best equipped to handle the longer distance of the Demoiselle. With no clear standout in the field, I’m inclined to play the entrants I think will relish 1 1/8 miles.
Only four of the nine fillies have ever competed in a race longer than a mile, and all of them were at 1 1/16 miles with two of those coming in races on the turf. Only #3 Life Talk and #7 Shimmering Allure have run in 1 1/16-mile dirt races. The former finished fourth in the NetJets Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies, while Shimmering Allure ran fourth in the Grade 1 Darley Alcibiades Stakes Oct. 6 at Keeneland.
Life Talk proved capable of competing against elite competition in the Breeders’ Cup and took a nice step forward when stretching out from a sprint in her debut to a mile in her second and third starts, prior to the Juvenile Fillies. She finished behind probable 2-year-old champion Just F Y I in her two most recent starts and, by distance sire Gun Runner out of a mare by 2006 Preakness winner Bernardini, Life Talk has the pedigree to thrive at 1 1/8 miles. She is the 8-5 morning-line favorite.
Shimmering Allure followed her fourth in the Alcibiades by closing from off the pace to win the Tempted Stakes going a mile at Aqueduct. She has made six starts for trainer Kenny McPeek, so she has had racing experience to build up her foundation, and she improved when stretching out from sprints to a mile and longer. She probably also will be one of the favorites and she is worthy of a long look.
Two fillies I think could handle the 1 1/8 miles and should outrun their morning-line odds are #4 Most of All and #8 Ringy Dingy.
Most of All is a Godolphin homebred by Quality Road trained by Hall of Famer Bill Mott. She romped in an off-the-turf maiden race at a mile in her most recent start, a performance that could have been aided by a sloppy track but also could be a sign that she is figuring things out. I’m willing to take a chance she is a filly on the rise at her 15-1 morning-line odds, especially since she bred to handle distance races. Her dam (mother), Indulgent, by Bernardini, won the Grade 3 Go For Wand Stakes at a mile and is a half-sister (same dam, different sire) to multiple Grade 1 winner Frosted, runner-up to Triple Crown winner American Pharoah in the 2015 Belmont Stakes.
As for Ringy Dingy, she handled the stretch out from a pair of sprints to begin her career to one mile for her third start in the White Clay Creek Stakes Oct. 13 at Delaware Park, where she motored from last to first and powered away to win by 6 ¼ lengths. This will be a significant class test, but again she is one that has shown ability and is bred for 1 1/8 miles as a full-sister (same dam, same sire) to 2023 Hollywood Gold Cup and 2022 Awesome Again Stakes winner Defunded.
I will key Most of All and Ringy Dingy on top and in multi-race bets and use the two favorites, Life Talk and Shimmering Allure, underneath on my exacta and trifecta tickets.
Wagering Strategy on a $12 Budget
$2 exacta 4,8 with 3,4,7,8 ($12)
What to say at the betting window: Aqueduct, Race 7, $2 exacta part wheel 4,8 with 3,4,7,8
Wagering Strategy on a $36 Budget
$4 exacta 4,8 with 3,4,7,8 ($24)
What to say at the betting window: Aqueduct, Race 7, $5 exacta part wheel 4,8 with 3,4,7,8
$1 trifecta: 4,8 with 3,4,7,8 with 3,4,7,8 ($12)
What to say at the betting window: Aqueduct, Race 7, $1 trifecta part wheel 4,8 with 3,4,7,8 with 3,4,7,8
