Big 12 football odds: Texas bets, Oklahoma win total picks

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The Big 12 media days take place on July 12 and 13 and serve as a gentle reminder that the most highly-anticipated season of college football in the conference’s history is just around the corner.

Texas is favored to win the title for the first time since 2009, but there are several other teams including the defending-champion Kansas State Wildcats that are ready to throw their hats into the ring.

Big 12 football odds 2023: Texas favored over Oklahoma, Kansas State

Here is the full slate of Big 12 odds for the 2023 season:

Texas is just above even money as the favorite to win the Big 12 over the likes of Oklahoma, K-State, TCU, and others. That's despite them only going 8-5 in 2022 and finishing third in the conference.

Top challengers Oklahoma were down at 6-7 in a first-year struggle under new coach Brent Venables but hit the portal and should be better after a consolidation period following Lincoln Riley’s departure.

TCU made a run to the national championship game but lost Heisman runner-up Max Duggan and top playmaker Quentin Johnston.

Big 12 football predictions: Texas to win the Big 12 (+120 or better)

While the oddsmakers are certainly flexing their muscles with this over-juiced line, Texas should be able to win the Big 12 before it departs to the SEC. 

The reason that we are not fond of the lack of value is that Texas has consistently found ways to disappoint itself and its fans over the past decade. They are also very much an unproven commodity, and the one-to-one valuation is disingenuous.

That said, the Longhorns’ offensive line should be elite in pass protection, and Quinn Ewers will have top targets Xavier Worthy, Adonai Mitchell and Jordan Whittington ready to make plays.

The defense is also one of the most veteran units in the conference and should help them pull through close contests. 

A trip to Tuscaloosa in September looms, as does the always-unpredictable Red River Rivalry game at the Cotton Bowl with Oklahoma, but Steve Sarkisian's group is the best top-to-bottom team in this conference. 

2023 NCAA football long shot pick: Baylor to win Big 12 (+2000 or better)

Baylor and Texas Tech are two of the trendier dark horse picks to win the Big 12, but Baylor is the superior choice.

The Red Raiders were undefeated in one-score games last season, whereas Baylor was just 2-3. That suggests regression is coming for the former, while the latter has more room to improve.

Baylor lost a ton of its talent but had the third-ranked transfer class in the Big 12 and is deep at running back and wide receiver.

The Big 12 is often decided by offense more than defense, and having the advantage there can go a long way.

2023 Oklahoma odds: Pick Sooners to go under 9.5 wins (-105 or better)

Like Texas, the Sooners are headed to the SEC following this coming season. While the Sooners would love to win the Big 12 over one of their biggest rivals before the two jet from the conference, we don't see such a quick turnaround from Venables' 6-7 debut season. 

Oklahoma will get to avoid the conference teams that stymied them last year, and that will go a long way toward a much better record.

But a four-win jump may be too much considering this group lost two starting offensive linemen along with a wide receiver. Not to mention the many concerns on defense. 

UCF Big 12 odds: Bet Knights to go over 6.5 wins (-145 or better)

The juice on this line is freshly squeezed—but we are high on the Knights as one of four first-year teams in the Big 12.

Coach Guz Malzahn is a tactician, John Rhys Plumlee is a true dual-threat quarterback, and the receiver room is one of the team’s best.

The defense also gave up fewer points than every Big 12 team except for Texas, albeit while playing in a weaker conference.

2023 Big 12 football best bets

• Big 12 champion pick: Texas (+120 or better)
• Big 12 long shot bet: Baylor (+1800 or better)
• UCF over 6.5 wins (-145 or better)
• Oklahoma under 9.5 wins (-105 or better)

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Grant Mitchell is a Virginia-based writer for Catena Media who graduated from Virginia Tech in 2021 with a degree in sports media & analytics. He has contributed to well-known publications such as Forbes, appeared on the VSiN TV network.