Big 12 football preseason projections, best bets from Austin Mock’s model: Could Texas actually be back?

The Athletic

13 July 2023

Big 12 football preseason projections, best bets from Austin Mock’s model: Could Texas actually be back?

College football season is still more than a month away but with the Big 12 holding their annual Media Day on Wednesday, we are starting to get a taste of the fall season. And one particularly interesting factoid about the Big 12 is that the only playoff teams outside of the Big 10 and SEC over the last two seasons come from this conference — TCU and Cincinnati.

Yes, if you’re unaware or have forgotten, Cincinnati is officially a member of the Big 12 this year (along with BYU, Houston, and UCF). So while those teams transition into the conference, can a current Big 12 member make a run to the playoff for the third consecutive year?

My college football projection model creates a projection rating for each team based on play-by-play data and adjusts for opponent. From those derived ratings, I’m able to then simulate every game of the season and project how many games a team will win, how often they win their conference or division, as well as how often they make the College Football Playoff and win the national title. These can then be used against the betting market or just for general trash talking among fan bases.

So how do things look for the Big 12 in mid-July?

Big 12 projections

XWINS is the average win total over the model’s simulations. CONF. TITLE is how often the team won the Big 12 title game. 6+ WIN is how often the team gained bowl eligibility.

TCU and Cincinnati have a lot of question marks to get back to the top 4 in the sport, which leaves plenty of room for anyone else in the conference to be top-dog, like say, a Texas or Oklahoma. Oklahoma hasn’t made the playoff since 2019 and just suffered its first losing season since 1998 under first-year coach Brent Venables. Texas…well, Texas has still yet to make the playoffs and has only one 10-win season since 2010 (and it took 14 games to do so in 2018). But despite the recent disappointment, both teams are expected to finish 1-2 in the conference according to my model. And if you disagree with that, sportsbooks are in agreement and they seem to be pretty good at their job.

But if you’ve followed the Big 12 the last decade or so, this conference is the definition of chaos and no team is safe week to week. Kansas State is the defending Big-12 champion and third-most-likely team to take home the conference crown per my model. Texas Tech and TCU round out the top 5. Yes, TCU, which made the playoff last season, is only the fifth-most-likely team to win the conference. The Horned Frogs lost a lot of production from last year’s team and were lucky to win as many games as they did last season. Regression should be coming for the Horned Frogs in 2023.

The top five in the model is the same as the top five (in a different order) in the preseason poll from media voters.

Let’s look at how my model compares to the betting market and see if there are any bets future bets worth taking a stab on. Last year, I had three future bets involving Big 12 teams and ended up 2-1 with the lone loss being Oklahoma to win the conference (that was bad) but had Texas under 8.5 wins and Kansas over 2.5 wins. As always, shop around for the best price at various sportsbooks. If you have questions on lines that differ from mine posted below, feel free to reach out in the comments or on Twitter/Threads/Instagram (amock419).

All bets are to win a half unit on favorites or risk a half unit on underdogs unless otherwise noted.

Best bets

Baylor under 7.5 wins (-188)

This is a little juicy and there are some 6.5’s out there if you don’t want to pay the juice (I think the edge is similar but not quite as large). Baylor followed up its impressive 2021 season with a lackluster 2022 campaign. My biggest concern with the Bears is on defense. They lost plenty on the defensive line and in the secondary so depth should remain a question. I think the offense should be fine, but Dave Aranda will need to work his magic to get his defense back to 2021 levels. Regardless, eight wins will be tough for them to achieve.

BYU under 5.5 wins (-125)

BYU has been a solid program over the last decade or so but making the jump to a full Power 5 schedule will take some time to adjust to. The Cougars’ defense was a bottom 30 unit in my model last year and there isn’t a whole lot to be excited about on that side of the ball. Considering how tough the schedule will be every week in the Big 12, they’ll have to out-perform their projection by a mile to get to bowl eligibility. An out of conference matchup at Arkansas won’t help their cause either.

Iowa State over 5.5 wins (+100)

Admittedly, I don’t love this. Iowa State’s offense could be horrible again and this bet is probably cooked pretty quickly. But head coach Matt Campbell made a change at offensive coordinator and Campbell’s track record speaks to winning football. The defense should be fine, despite some turnover from last year. Even with a horrible offense, they won four games last year and went 1-6 in one-score games. I think that record is unlikely to be that poor in 2023. If there is any improvement on the offensive side of the ball, Iowa State should be bowling and Campbell will again have his hat in the college football coaching carousel at the end of the season.

Kansas over 5.5 wins (-150)

We are hopping back on the Jayhawks in 2023 after they came through big time for us in 2022. Lance Leipold is a proven winner and I think Kansas continues to take a step forward this season. The offense should be plenty fine, but the defense is where things are likely to improve for Leipold’s squad. The Jayhawks defense projects to be a bottom-40 unit to start the season but my model still likes them going over 5.5 wins.

Oklahoma under 9.5 wins (-110)

Oklahoma has the talent to make big strides this season versus last year, but I’m just not as high on the offense as others. Sure, offensive coordinator Jeff Lebby has been a part of a lot of great offenses, but he’s also had a great offensive mind ahead of him. That’s not the case in Oklahoma this year. They’ll score some points, sure, but I don’t see this becoming a top 10 offense by any means. Venables will surely take care of the defense, I think, but without an elite offense, getting to 10 wins seems like a tall ask against a tough Big 12.