Bills vs. Patriots Predictions, Picks, Odds Week 7

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20 October 2023

Bills vs. Patriots Predictions, Picks, Odds Week 7

The New EnglandPatriots look for their first home win when hosting the Buffalo Bills thisweekend, and we make our best Bills vs. Patriots Week 7 predictions based onthe best NFL odds.

Buffalois coming off a 14-9 Sunday night victory over the New York Giants but was oneyard away from dropping to 3-3 instead of improving to 4-2, as New York failedto convert on an untimed play from the one-yard line on the last play of thegame.

NewEngland’s 1-5 start is its worst since 1995 under Bill Parcells, and it hasgone five straight games with 17 or fewer points for the first time under BillBelichick.

Here is our best Bills vs. Patriots prediction and our NFL picks (odds via our best NFL betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Bills vs.Patriots prediction

Under 41.5 (-110 via Caesars, DraftKings, bet365) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

After two poor offensive performances in a row from the Bills,where they averaged 17 points per game against the Giants and Jaguars, headcoach Sean McDermott had to answer questions about whether there would be achange in who calls plays, per Bills beat writer Jay Skurski.

In theory, Buffalo should be able to bounce back against the Patriots,as since 2020 (including the playoffs), Josh Allen has averaged 2.7 touchdowns,283 yards, a 65.9% completion percentage, less than one turnover per game, anda 113 passer rating versus New England. However, Allen is also nursing a soreshoulder that required X-rays after the win against the Giants, so a higheremphasis on the running game should be in order.

New England’s touchdown in the third quarter against the LasVegas Raiders last week was its first in 40 drives, and the Patriots have averagedjust 6.7 points per game through a three-game losing streak. New England isaveraging a paltry 0.99 points per drive (worst in the NFL), scoring on just18.3% of its offensive possessions.

Given that Buffalo has covered four straight games against NewEngland and the Patriots have the second-worst point differential (-80) in theNFL, there is reason to believe the Bills could exceed this total on their own.However, Buffalo has yet to establish a consistent second option in the passinggame outside of Stefon Diggs, as no other Bills receiver is averaging more than3.5 receptions per game.

Thus, we expect Belichick to devise a game plan that limitsDiggs’ offensive output and forces Buffalo to beat him with secondary options.

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Bills vs.Patriots best odds

Caesars, DraftKings, bet365 (-110)

Whileall of the best sports betting sites are aligned with an O/U of 41.5 points, we are choosing between DraftKings, Caesars, and bet365 as our go-to shops, as it is cheaper to backthe Under at their -110 odds compared to the -115 price found at BetMGM and FanDuel.

If the weather forecast in Foxborough worsens at the expected morningrain spills over into the afternoon, this total would likely come down further,so we are taking advantage of what we believe is the best number while we can,especially since the Under is 9-1 in Buffalo’s previous 10 road games.

Bills vs. Patriots odds

FanDuelopened its total at 43.5 late Sunday afternoon before the Bills-Giants gamekicked off, but the line dropped to 42.5 by Monday morning after Buffalo’sshaky offensive performance.

While most of the best sports betting apps saw a steady decline froman opening number of 42.5 down to the current number of 41.5, DraftKings interestingly had its total spike to 44 late Monday morning before Underbackers were responsible for dropping the number swiftly. There is neardead-even two-way action on the total thus far, as it is split 51/49 in favorof the Over.

DraftKingsis the only sportsbook offering a spread of Bills -9, while all othersportsbooks are in unison at -8.5. Buffalo fluctuated between -8.5 and -9 onMonday morning at FanDuel and reached highs of -9.5 at bet365, BetMGM, andCaesars at various points on Monday. Since then, Patriots backers have beenmore involved, but that is likely sharp action, as the early wagers are stillmore than 3/1 (77/23) in support of Buffalo.

New England is 0-9 ATS in its lastnine games as underdogs.