Blackhawks vs Penguins Picks, Predictions & Odds Tonight

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10 October 2023

Blackhawks vs Penguins Picks, Predictions & Odds Tonight

Hockey is back, and the NHL has gifted us a matchup between Connor Bedard and Sidney Crosby to kick off the season. With Chicago likely to struggle offensively, our NHL picks don't expect Pens' goalie Tristan Jarry to see much rubber.

Photo By - USA TODAY Sports

The 2023-24 NHL season kicks off tonight, highlighted by a dynamic matchup between the Chicago Blackhawks and Pittsburgh Penguins.

Yeah, Chicago is likely to be terrible once again as the NHL odds indicate, but it is an exciting time for the city and its fans as generational prospect Connor Bedard will make his debut against his favorite player growing up — Sidney Crosby.

Will Bedard and the Hawks kick off the season on a high note, or can Pittsburgh defend home ice to start the new campaign? Find out in my free NHL picks and predictions for the Blackhawks vs Penguins on October 10.

Blackhawks vs Penguins odds

Blackhawks vs Penguins predictions

While the Connor Bedard hype is fun and the Chicago Blackhawks' prospect pool gives fans optimism for a very bright future, we are a few years out yet. This team is constructed to be terrible again this season, regardless of how well the No. 1 overall pick performs.

At 5-on-5 last season, the Hawks ranked last in the league in expected goals for per 60 minutes (xGF/60) and 29th in expected goals against per 60 minutes (xGA/60). They are going to get some sparks offensively from the likes of Bedard, Lukas Reichel, and Kevin Korchinski, but none of those improvements are going to help defensively.

Just like last year, teams should not have an issue moving the puck against Chicago while spending a lot of time in the offensive zone. And, subsequently, that could mean fewer saves for goaltender Tristan Jarry on Pittsburgh’s end.

Not that this play is a fade of Jarry — who is solid but not among the NHL’s elite netminders — but rather it is a fade of Chicago's inability to control possession against a superior team. In his lone game against the Blackhawks last season, Jarry stopped 22 of 25 shots, so even if he had tossed a shutout he would have remained Under his total of 25.5, which you can currently find at FanDuel.

Even further boosting this play is that FD has a 50% profit boost on any one NHL bet tonight, so you can improve the price for fading Chicago's offense from -112 to +134.

If you read my Connor Bedard props article you know I have high hopes for him this season... but tonight won't be one to be celebrated by Chicago backers.

My best bet: Tristan Jarry Under 25.5 saves (~~-112~~+134 at FanDuel)

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Blackhawks vs Penguins same-game parlay

Reichel anytime goalscorer

Blackhawks +1.5

Over 6.5

While Bedard has gotten all the hype, Reichel has looked nearly just as good throughout camp and the preseason. He has gotten some NHL run prior to this year, scoring seven times over 23 games, but he looks like a completely different player this season.

He is faster and looks much more confident, the latter of which was the shakiest part of his otherwise promising game. This number is just too wide for a guy who is the only other true-scoring threat on Chicago, and I think Reichel is going to have a big year.

And, in a couple of plays with some solid correlation, you can also take a shot on the Hawks to keep this game close and the Over. If Reichel scores and Bedard showcases his talent in this opening game, then they could keep it close against an aging and slower Pittsburgh team.

Additionally, the Mrazek vs. Jarry matchup is not one that screams a low-scoring goaltending battle — if the game is low scoring, then that will more likely be because of the lackluster offensive play rather than stellar goaltending.

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Blackhawks vs Penguins moneyline and Over/Under analysis

The Penguins opened as a –225 favorite and have since been bet up to -245. This line movement is not all that shocking as Pittsburgh boasts the better offense, defense, and goaltender.

That brings me to the total, which opened at 6.5 and remains at that number. I don’t think this number will come down, but it also is unlikely to reach seven with the Hawks’ offense. With that said, Chicago’s blue line is extremely leaky and is playing in front of Mrazek while Pittsburgh’s defense got worse with the signing of Erik Karlsson, who only focuses on the offensive side of the game.