Blackhawks vs Stars Picks, Predictions, and Odds Tonight

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22 February 2023

Blackhawks vs Stars Picks, Predictions, and Odds Tonight

The Blackhawks are on a three-game win streak, but a meeting with the Stars' Jake Oettinger could cool off their sticks. Meanwhile, Dallas' offense is mired in a serious slump. Our NHL expert picks envision a low-scoring tilt in Texas tonight.

In Wednesday’s NHL nightcap, there is a Central Division tilt with the first-place Dallas Stars hosting the last-place Chicago Blackhawks. Chicago enters this contest on the second half of a back-to-back following last night’s upset victory over the Vegas Golden Knights.

Will the Hawks extend their winning streak to four games, or can the Stars bring them back to reality? Find out in our free NHL picks and predictions for Blackhawks vs Stars on Wednesday, February 22.

Blackhawks vs Stars best odds

Blackhawks vs Stars picks and predictions

The Chicago Blackhawks enter this contest on an impressive three-game win streak, with victories over the Knights, Toronto Maple Leafs, and Ottawa Senators. A big part of the Hawks’ success during this stretch – outside of Patrick Kane’s brilliance – is the goaltending.

Chicago’s success in net could continue in this matchup with goaltender Jaxson Stauber slated to get the nod. Through five starts this season, the rookie netminder is 4-1 with a .912 SV% and a 2.76 GAA.

Based on his metrics, regression is unlikely for Stauber. If he qualified, Stauber would rank 11th among starting goaltenders in goals saved above expected per 60 minutes (GSAx/60) at 5-on-5.

However, goal support will be Stauber’s bigger concern. The Hawks rank last in the league in expected goals for per 60 minutes (xGF/60) at 5-on-5, which is not shocking given the construction of this roster.

This offense should struggle against one of the better defensive teams in the league. Entering this matchup, the Dallas Stars rank 11th in the league in expected goals against per 60 minutes (xGA/60) at 5-on-5.

Backing up this strong defense is goaltender Jake Oettinger, who is developing into one of the league’s best netminders. Through 42 appearances in the crease this season, Oettinger is 23-7-9 with a .926 SV% and a 2.20 GAA.

Entering this matchup in particularly great form, he boasts a .937 SV% and 1.93 GAA over his last eight starts. There were five or fewer total goals scored in all eight of those outings.

Oettinger’s underlying metrics suggest that regression is unlikely, ranking fifth among starting goaltenders in GSAx/60 at 5-on-5. With five or fewer total goals scored in each of Dallas’ last 11 games, expect another low-scoring affair on Wednesday evening.

My best bet: Under 6 (-110 at DraftKings)

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Blackhawks vs Stars moneyline analysis

The Stars are massive favorites in this contest, laying north of four dollars on the moneyline. Pricing Dallas as massive favorites is the correct move, considering they boast every advantage imaginable in this contest.

The Stars are better offensively, defensively, on special teams, in the faceoff circle, and in net. However, laying north of four dollars is a bit of an over-adjustment.

There is no doubt that Dallas should and likely will win, but no team should lay that much juice in this league, especially against a team on a three-game win streak.

Chicago is typically an auto-fade for me, and I think Dallas will both win and cover the puckline in their own building. But if I had to pick a side, there is more value in backing the Hawks +1.5 at +135.

Blackhawks vs Stars Over/Under analysis

Oettinger’s stellar play in the crease should continue against Chicago. Over his last nine outings against the Hawks, he is 5-1-2 with a .912 SV% and a 2.59 GAA.

However, goal support for Oettinger may be more difficult to come by. The Stars rank in the bottom half of the league in xGF/60 at 5-on-5. They’ve also scored a grand total of five goals during their current four-game losing streak.

With their elite goaltending, strong defense, and below-average offense, it is not shocking that there have now been five or fewer total goals scored in each of Dallas’ last 11 games.